It has already been a very active morning across Central Alabama with large hail and significant wind damage from a powerful storm that moved across the middle of the state early this morning. Trees were reported on homes across Chilton County in the Thorsby and Gap of the Mountain areas, including residents being trapped. Not a good start to what looks to be another long day and night of severe weather in Alabama.
A TEMPORARY LULL: Things have calmed after the morning severe weather, with rain and storms pushing southeastward into Central Alabama as a disturbance passes to our north. Even though this first round may be drawing to a close, the main event is still to come later today and this evening.
A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP: Our rain-cooled boundary seems to be stalling over Central Alabama this morning. The northern third of the state will probably remain mostly dry until late afternoon. Additional showers and storms will slide along the I-20 Corridor but should remain below severe levels. Meanwhile, very warm, very moist Gulf of Mexico air is coming northward over Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Dewpoints are now in the 70s from southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Temperatures are rising through the 70s as well. Breaks in the clouds are starting to appear, and temperatures will be in the 80s by early afternoon over southern sections of Alabama and Mississippi. Southerly winds are beginning to pick up along the southern portions of the Gulf coastal states. Thunderstorms are breaking out over eastern Texas from east of Waco to Houston to southeast of Lufkin. These storms will spread into Louisiana and Mississippi this afternoon and reach western Alabama around sunset. By that time, the airmass over the southern half of Alabama will be very unstable, with those same type dewpoints and temperatures feeding into that boundary. Supercells that ride along it could become severe and pose the threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes.
SPC OUTLOOK: The SPC has outlooks almost all of South Alabama in its next to the highest category (Moderate) or 4/5 out of 5 for today and tonight. There is some speculation that they could upgrade to a high risk on their 11:30 outlook update. We will be watching for that.
CHECK OUT THIS ONE GRAPHIC FROM THE HRRR: This is the product that combines the updraft helicity couplets from the HRRR mesoscale model’s 8 a.m. run. It shows multiple long track supercells moving across South Central Alabama. While this is not a forecast, it does support the idea that we could have several intense, long-track, potentially tornadic supercells somewhere across South Central Alabama, most likely in the Moderate Risk area, between 6 p.m. and 2 a.m. tonight. We will be monitoring future model runs and mesoscale developments closely to see if these tendencies continue.
REVIEW YOUR SAFETY PLAN NOW: This potential is very concerning and highlights the critical need for residents of Central Alabama to review their severe weather safety plans, prepare their safe places, check their warning sources, gather their emergency gear, and pay close attention to later developments during the day. We will have frequent updates right here on the blog throughout the event.
FOR YOUR MONDAY: Expect rapidly improving conditions on Monday with clearing skies and mild temperatures ranging between 75F and 80F after morning lows in the 50s. Winds will be gusty during the morning, out of the north and northwest.
Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather
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April 19, 2020 at 10:02PM
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The Latest on the Alabama Severe Weather Situation for This Afternoon and Tonight as of 10 am: Concern Increasing For South Central Alabama This Evening - alabamawx.com
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