Strong-to-severe storms lead in a weekend chill - KBTX

BRYAN, Tex. (KBTX) - Thursday evening brought rain and a few rumbles to the Brazos Valley. The nicer side of spring's rain.

Friday brings another round of active weather, but this time some of the storms may not be as gentle.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the area -- from I-45 and points west -- under a SLIGHT ( 2 out of 5; noted in yellow above) Risk for severe weather Friday. The timeline is expected to fall between 3pm and 9-10pm.

As a sharp cold front enters from the north and northwest, this widespread area of rain and thunderstorms is expected to develop in the upper 70° to low 80°. With the moisture that is in place, instability will be high enough to feed the potential for severe weather. Should any storm become concerning along and ahead of that front, we will need to monitor for:

• Damaging wind gusts in excess of 40-70mph
• Localized, brief street and low-lying flooding
• Hail to the size of a quarter or smaller

There will be an incredible amount of moisture in the atmosphere to work with. Any stronger storm, or storms that move through the same area multiple times, could produce locally heavy downpours to the tune of 1" to 2". Highly localized totals of 3" or 4" of rain cannot be ruled out if this severe weather threat materializes.

There is one hitch that could keep that severe weather at bay: cooler air.

Being a shallow cold front, if cooler air can slide in under these developing thunderstorms it would effectively zap the instability (aka fuel) that these storms have to work with. By that same idea, if a line of storms advances into the area pushing out strong, gusty wind -- it would be a rain-cooled one rushing out ahead. That outflow wind could act like a mini-cold front to help negate some of this severe weather potential.

Even if these storms are not severe, activity behind the front would likely drop heavy rain and should be noisy with plenty of thunder and lightning coming along with them.

Saturday, the Brazos Valley is in the wake of this cold front. One major forecast shift that occurred Thursday was the outlook for a chilly Saturday. Latest data now suggests that the day may be spent struggling to get out of the mid-and-upper 50s. Scattered rain and thunderstorms are once again in the forecast, but any rumble should be non-severe in that cooler air.

This will be a forecast to monitor, but one that does need to be paid attention to. More details through the day Friday can be found on-air, here at KBTX.com, and on your KBTX PinPoint Weather app.

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Strong-to-severe storms lead in a weekend chill - KBTX
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