"Sun fades away, so do the mild temperatures." That was my forecast headline a week ago today (did you know you can see my forecasts going back a week? Just scroll to the bottom of the JasonsWeather home page).
This time, we're headed in the opposite direction with one of the milder days of the month on tap for today and milder still tomorrow through the weekend. A quiet day today but Friday will not be. We have our first legit shot at severe weather for the season, a couple of rounds in fact.
A decent weekend will follow with next week contingent upon the evolution of a storm that will bring us rain on Monday and another storm that'll be off the East Coast with the name Arthur attached to it.
Lots to get to in the world of weather today.
Today
It's another, and hopefully the last, cold-to-chilly morning. The air is dry, we have a few thin passing clouds. While some spots have a light breeze, others are dead calm. The result of all this is temperatures are quite variable across the area, ranging from the mid-20s to the upper 30s.
It's a similar start to yesterday, but the rest of the day will be a bit different. Sunshine will fade behind increasing clouds this afternoon, it won't be as windy as it's been over the last several days and it'll end up as one of the milder days we've seen this month so far. Highs will top out in the mid-50s to the middle 60s.
In case you were wondering, we are currently in the coldest May on record with an average temperature of 50.2 degrees. Number 1 on the list sits at 50.4. This of course means nothing, as we're only two weeks in and we have some 70s in the coming days! I'm quite sure the top spot will be safe at month's end.
Clouds thicken tonight with some rain moving in from the southwest late into the overnight hours. Some pockets will be heavy as they sweep to the northeast across our area. The good news is it will be much milder than the previous several nights with lows in the upper 40s to the middle 50s.
These rains will signal a marked change in our atmosphere. They will open the door to higher temperatures and humidity for Friday. We also have to be on the lookout for severe weather to follow later in the day.
Friday
The early morning rain will continue to push north and we'll spend the rest of the morning drying out. We will be on the warm side of a warm front with that increase in temperatures and humidity. A cold front will arrive later in the day, and it has the potential to facilitate our first severe weather day of the season.
I will be watching two important things from late morning into the afternoon: how much sun breaks out and how high the dew points climb. Both will help determine the evolution of the day's storms.
As the afternoon progresses, that cold front will be heading our way. Ahead of it, depending on how the aforementioned sun and humidity plays out, is where our first opportunities for some severe storms lie. If things come together, we will see a few warnings with gusty wind, perhaps some 1" hail and even an isolated tornado.
As is usually the case for us, strong straight-line winds are our main threat. If we keep more clouds around and/or the dew points are only, say in the mid-50s, that threat will be pushed to the south of our area.
The second opportunity for storms will come ahead of and along our cold front, which will be moving quickly through during the early evening hours. This will be a line of storms that will produce more warnings due to gusty wind. Once the front passes east, we'll quiet things down for the night.
Highs Friday will top out in the 60s to the mid-70s, but with more sun, we would see some areas approaching 80.
Nighttime temperatures will fall back to the 40s to mid-50s.
The weekend
Skies will be clearing out early Saturday morning, setting the stage for a good day's worth of weather. We'll be 25-30 degrees warmer than last Saturday for starters. The day will end up with a mix of sun and clouds, a northwest breeze and highs in the 60s to the low 70s.
Clouds return through the afternoon on Sunday. After starting the day in the 40s to 50 degrees, highs will be a few degrees cooler than Saturday. Some rain may break out as early as Sunday night with more to come on Monday.
Next week
Many questions are up for next week's weather. In short, we had a good setup to keep us warm with sunshine - you know, spring. That has become complicated. I won't get into it too much at this point, but the highlights are as follows:
Monday will be a wet day as an upper-level storm swings in to close the weekend. Our first named storm of the 2020 hurricane season is likely to be loitering off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Forecast models are providing solutions that "merge" those two entities into a large, upper-level storm that will hang out on the East Coast. The question is where this puppy will set up shop. We'll answer that in due time, let's deal with Friday first. For now, I'm going to play the forecast pessimistically as you can see in your 5-Day Forecast.
Here is a post I wrote on the upcoming 2020 season, including more on what is likely to be Subtropical Storm Arthur by Saturday.
Personally, I wish we could share time with Dudley Moore instead. You know, that Arthur. He's a lot more fun to be around.
"severe" - Google News
May 14, 2020 at 06:43PM
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Jason Gough's forecast: Severe weather could hit Friday - Times Union
"severe" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2OrY17E
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