North Dakota is under a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather this Sunday as a surface cold front moves southward the rest of the afternoon through tonight. 
The main threat with these storms will be the risk for isolated large hail and damaging winds. The forcing mechanism that will be helping storms develop is a surface cold front. Along and ahead of the front, warm/moist air advection will help some of these storms become supercells which may increase the threat for large hail as seen below.
As we follow this cold front, the timing for severe storms based on our forecast models looks to be best this evening. Most of our storms will be fairly elevated along this front but we may still see some locally damaging wind gusts.
MONDAY
Looking ahead to our Day 2 outlook, the upper Midwest becomes the next target for severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk extending from western Minnesota, Wisconsin, through eastern Michigan; the upper Midwest and eventually into the Great Lakes, which is discussed more here.
The storms from Minnesota to Wisconsin and Michigan will also be driven by warm/moist advection and a southward moving cold front Monday afternoon.
Monday, we will have a bit more CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) to work with, bringing a risk for large hail and damaging wind for these areas as highlighted below.
Also, we have a low risk for an isolated tornado. These storms may potentially organize as they follow the front and the environment will be favorable for winds to veer with height which typically suggests a risk for a tornado to spin-up along the line of storms. The timing for this will be the evening through the overnight hours.
The timing based on our forecast models will be most favorable for development in the evening hours as the center of the low pressure system and trailing cold front move through.
Note: the last image for Tuesday at 2 AM, we have removed the surface front from our map to see the storms better, but the low pressure center and front are still there.
For the latest on our ongoing severe weather threat tune into WeatherNation on our streaming platforms or follow us on social media @WeatherNation!
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August 24, 2020 at 03:09AM
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North Dakota to Midwest Severe Threat Sunday and Monday - WeatherNation
"severe" - Google News
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