Hurricane Laura Threatens Gulf Coast
"The first rule of hurricane coverage is that every broadcast must begin with palm trees bending in the wind" wrote author Carl Hiaasen. True. And frantic TV reporters hunkered down on the beach.
Hurricane Laura is forecast to come ashore late tonight, perilously close to Houston. The storm is passing over warm water, jet fuel for hurricanes. It may roar ashore with 115 mph winds and a basketball-hoop-high
storm surge of over 10 feet.
You can't blame Houstonians for being paranoid. 3 years ago "Harvey" dropped 60 inches of rain, leaving behind $125 billion in damage. It was the third 500-year flood in 3 years.
No extreme levels of weather drama in our forecast, just low 90s today and a slightly cooler northeast breeze on Thursday. The best chance of showers and T-storms comes Thursday night into Friday morning, followed by a fresh northwest wind, setting the stage for a comfortably cool
weekend.
Good farming news: corn has reached the dough stage 17 days ahead of 2019, when it wouldn't stop raining.
Hurricane Laura photo taken Tuesday, courtesy of NASA's International Space Station.
Slight Severe Risk Later Today. SPC has upgraded much of central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin into a slight risk category, calling for pockets of large hail and damaging winds. I wouldn't be surprised to see watches and warnings issued later today.
Praedictix Briefing: Issued Wednesday morning, August 26th, 2020:
- Laura has been rapidly strengthening during the overnight hours in the Gulf of Mexico, becoming a major Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph as of the 7 AM National Hurricane Center update.
- Landfall is still expected tonight or early Thursday morning near the Texas and Louisiana border along the Gulf Coast. Additional strengthening is expected today, but some very slight weakening is possible right before landfall.
- This will be a large and dangerous storm along the northwestern Gulf Coast, bringing potentially catastrophic storm surge and winds as well as heavy rain and flash flooding.
- Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Gulf Coast tonight into Thursday morning, with a storm surge of up to 15 feet possible. The surge of water could go 30 miles inland across portions of southern Louisiana and southeastern Texas.
- Winds of 100+ mph will be possible in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas, especially near the coast, overnight tonight into Thursday morning. These winds will cause potentially devastating damage, and there is expected to be widespread power outages across the region.
- Heavy rain of at least 5-10” across portions of Louisiana, Texas, and Arkansas will lead to flash and urban flooding.
- We’re also tracking numerous wildfires in the western United States and Typhoon Bavi bringing strong winds and heavy rain to South Korea, including Seoul, over the next day.
Hurricane Laura
Laura Satellite. Laura has been rapidly strengthening since yesterday over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with wind speeds increasing by 45 mph from 5 AM ET Tuesday to 5 AM ET Wednesday. As of the 7 AM CDT time update Wednesday, Laura was a Major Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph. As shown on satellite, Laura is a large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending out 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds up to 175 miles from the center. A buoy just east of Laura’s eye has recently reported 74 mph sustained winds, a wind gust of 107 mph, and waves up to 37 feet. The center of Laura was located 280 miles south-southeast of Lake Charles, or 290 miles southeast of Galveston. Laura was moving to the northwest at 15 mph.
Laura Track. Laura will continue to strengthen today while moving to the northwest and is expected to become a major Category 4 hurricane this afternoon sitting south of Louisiana. As we head into tonight, Laura will turn more north-northwest, which will bring the system toward the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast and eventually inland tonight or early Thursday morning. Model guidance has continued to focus in on a landfall somewhere near the Texas/Louisiana border, with a higher confidence in this solution versus yesterday with the guidance condensing around this scenario overnight. However, any slight wiggles in center of circulation could cause this system to go farther west or east, so areas from Houston east to Beaumont, Port Arthur, Lake Charles and through portions of western and central Louisiana need to be on guard, quickly finish preparations ahead of Laura in the next few hours, and evacuate if necessary or under orders to do so. Some slight weakening is expected before landfall tonight, with forecast wind speeds of 120 mph at landfall, but that doesn’t mean that Laura becomes any less of a dangerous storm. After landfall, Laura will start to quickly weaken, moving north into northwestern Louisiana with winds of around 60 mph by the early afternoon Thursday, and becoming a tropical depression Thursday night across central Arkansas.
Hurricane Warnings. Hurricane Warnings stretch the Gulf Coast from Sun Luis Pass, TX, to Intracoastal City, LA, and stretch inland to include areas like Galveston, Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Lufkin (TX), and Lake Charles and Alexandria (LA). Tropical Storm Warnings include areas like Houston and Tyler (TX), Shreveport, Monroe, and New Iberia (LA), and El Dorado (AR). Along the coast, here are where warnings and watches are in place:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana
Here are links to more information on Laura from local National Weather Service offices: New Orleans/Baton Rouge, Lake Charles, Houston/Galveston, Shreveport
Laura Storm Surge. I’m going to talk about storm surge first instead of winds as I am greatly concerned about the surge of water that could impact portions of Louisiana into the Golden Triangle area of Texas. A life-threatening (and potentially historic according to NWS Lake Charles) storm surge (which is when water pushes inland causing dry areas near the coast to flood by these rising waters) is expected along the coast and inland from Laura as we go through tonight into early Thursday. This stretch of coast is quite vulnerable to storm surge. The National Hurricane Center notes that the storm surge could go as far as 30 miles inland from the coastline in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. The highest storm surge along the coast will be near and to the east of where landfall occurs, where if the peak surge occurs at high tide a surge of 10-15 feet will be possible along the Louisiana and far southeastern Texas coast. A storm surge of 3-5 feet will be possible in Galveston Bay, with a storm surge of 2-4 feet in Lake Pontchartrain. Here is the potential above ground water heights possible along the coast if the surge occurs at high tide:
- Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...10-15 ft
- Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
- Port Bolivar to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
- Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
- San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
- Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
- Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
- Freeport to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Storm Surge Warnings. Storm Surge Warnings are in place from Freeport, TX, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, with Storm Surge Watches in place from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne.
Peak Winds. Tropical storm force winds (39+ mph) will start to impact the Gulf Coast this afternoon, with hurricane force winds possible by the early/mid-evening hours. The current forecast track of Laura has the strongest winds across portions of southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas, where wind gusts of over 100 mph will be possible – particularly near and along the coast. Winds will decrease as the storm moves inland, but hurricane-force winds will continue to be possible across portions of west-central Louisiana and east-central Texas. Wind gusts over 50 mph will still be possible later in the day Thursday across northwestern Louisiana and southeastern Arkansas.
Beaumont/Port Arthur and Lake Charles Wind Gusts. As Laura approaches the coast late today into tonight, wind gusts will quickly increase above tropical storm force during the evening hours and up above hurricane force around landfall during the very early morning hours Thursday. During that time, wind gusts up to/above 100 mph will be possible, potentially causing devastating to catastrophic damage. There is expected to be widespread power outages across the region.
Heavy Rain Potential. Flooding rains are expected along the track of Laura over the next several days. A wide swath of at least 5-10” of rain is expected to fall from the northwestern Gulf Coast to Arkansas, with isolated 15” amounts possible. Farther north, 2-5” of rain will be possible across portions of the Tennessee and Ohio River Valley as what is left of Laura moves through the region Friday into Saturday.
Flood Potential. The highest potential of flooding through Thursday morning will be along the Gulf Coast and across portions of southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. The highest potential Thursday/Thursday Night will be from northwestern Louisiana and eastern Texas across a good portion of Arkansas. On Friday, the greatest potential will be across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley and western Ohio River Valley.
Flash Flood Watches. Due to the heavy rain expected, Flash Flood Watches extend from the Gulf Coast to central Arkansas.
Tornado Threat. Landfalling tropical systems also contain the threat of tornadoes. The threat exists near the Gulf Coast today, extending north into portions of Arkansas as we go through Thursday.
Western Wildfires
Western Fires Continue. Numerous wildfires continue to burn across the western United States, with evacuations in place and poor air quality due to the smoke. In Colorado, the Pine Gulch fire, burning 18 miles north of Grand Junction, has burned 135,903 acres and is 47% contained. The Grizzly Creek Fire, burning near Glenwood Springs, has burned 32,060 acres and is 61% contained. Out in California, about two dozen major incidents/complexes continue to burn. Some of the worst fires can be found in the Bay Area. Highlighting some of those fires:
- The SCU Lightning Complex Fire is burning in several locations across five counties: Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus. This complex is compiled of about 20 fires in three zones which have merged into one major fire. This complex of fires has burned 365,772 acres and is 20% contained. This would place this fire at the second largest in California history. Numerous evacuation orders are in place across the region, but some evacuation order warnings have been lifted. More information from Cal Fire: https://www.fire.ca.gov/
incidents/2020/8/18/scu- lightning-complex/ - The LNU Lightning Complex fires (including the Hennessey, Wallbridge and Myers fires) has burned 356,326 acres and is 27% contained. This would place this fire as the third largest in California history. Numerous evacuation orders and warnings remain in place. Extreme fire behavior continues to challenge firefighting efforts. The largest fire of this complex is the Hennessey, which contains multiple merged fires, burning in Napa and Lake Counties. That fire alone has burned 299,463 acres and is 29% contained. More information from Cal Fire: https://www.fire.ca.gov/
incidents/2020/8/17/lnu- lightning-complex-includes- hennessey-gamble-15-10- spanish-markley-13-4-11-16- walbridge/ - The CZU Lightning Complex Fire in southern San Mateo and northern Santa Cruz counties consists of multiple large fires that have merged. The complex has burned 79,640 acres and is 19% contained. The fire continues to actively burn above the marine layer. Evacuation orders are in place, but evacuation warnings in Santa Clara County have been lifted. More information from Cal Fire: https://www.fire.ca.gov/
incidents/2020/8/16/czu- lightning-complex-including- warnella-fire/
More information on fires in California can be found from Cal Fire: https://www.fire.ca.gov/
More information on Colorado and other western wildfires can be found from InciWeb: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/?
Fire Weather And Air Quality Concerns. Fire Weather Warnings (pink) are still in place today across portions of Idaho due to the potential of scattered storms with lightning and gusty storm outflow. The smoke from wildfires are also causing air quality concerns, with Air Quality Alerts (gray) in place. Excessive Heat Warnings are in place for Phoenix through Friday, where highs of 107-113F are expected daily, and in Las Vegas through Thursday with highs in the upper 100s.
Typhoon Bavi
Typhoon Bavi. We are also watching Typhoon Bavi moving through the Yellow Sea. This storm will stay off the west coast of South Korea but strong winds are expected to be felt in areas like Seoul, where wind speeds of 33-55 mph will be possible as Bavi moves past. The strongest winds are expected in the early morning hours of Thursday. Heavy rain will also impact South Korea, with an additional 3-5” of rain possible in Seoul through Thursday. Bavi is expected to make landfall in North Korea Thursday.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
How Earth-Orbiting Satellites are Tracking the 2020 Hurricane Season. Space.com has some interesting perspective: "...Organizations like NOAA use Earth-orbiting satellites to monitor weather and storms like hurricanes here on Earth. Among others, NOAA uses Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, or GOES, which orbit at the same speed of Earth's rotation 22,300 miles (35,888 kilometers) above our planet's equator. "Our satellites give us a large-scale view" of the Earth that can see everything from the big to the small, Yoe said. He added that with these observations, scientists and forecasters can fully see the conditions in which hurricanes form. Yoe added that NOAA has recently made a number of enhancements and improvements to their existing satellites..."
Study Quantifies Potential Covid-19 Spread from Hurricane Evacuation. Sheltering people (safely) during a hurricane proves non-trivial, according to a paper summarized at Columbia University's State of the Planet: "...Under the worst-case scenario the authors considered, if people followed historic evacuation patterns and virus transmission rates increased by 20 percent in their destination counties, there would be roughly 61,000 additional COVID-19 cases in the origin and destination counties combined. Under the best-case scenario, if people instead evacuated to communities with low COVID-19 transmission rates and transmission rates did not increase in the destination counties, there could be as few as 9,100 additional cases resulting from the evacuation. The scientists said they hope the study will help inform the work of emergency managers and other local decision makers, as well as federal and state agency staff as the hurricane season progresses..."
Image credit: "September 2019, four cyclones line up in the Western Hemisphere." (NASA)
Weekend Cooling Trend. T-storms are likely late Thursday into Friday morning, marking the leading edge of cooler, lower-dewpoint air, which should set the stage for a very nice weekend (especially Saturday). Map sequence above: Praedictix and AerisWeather.
Lukewarm. The forecast for 500mb winds looking out roughly 2 weeks shows simmering heat lingering for much of the southern USA, but a trend toward more moderate weather for northern tier states (more 70s than 90s). Sounds pretty good to me.
August Rainfall To Date. Over 5" at St. Cloud, but only 1.5" in Rochester. This month has seen some big variations in moisture, but in general summer rainfall has been adequate for crops and vegetation.
August Rainfall Deficits and Surpluses. Rainfall has been generally above average over central and northern Minnesota, but below average for far southern counties of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Map credits: Praedictix and AerisWeather.
Image credit: "The vorticity field of a multiple-vortex EF5 tornado embedded in a supercell thunderstorm."
Floodlines. The Gulf Coast is in serious trouble. Rising seas, coupled with increasingly intense hurricanes, is inundating coastal properties and (increasingly) submerging communities well inland. Check out an amazing podcast from The Atlantic. Here's an excerpt of Part 1: "...In the 1850s, southern Louisiana had the highest concentration of millionaires in the country. The Last Island hurricane had killed a lot of them. The idea of doomed grand balls and final pageants of the plantation aristocracy, it was all so tragic and romantic. But I don’t really care about that part. I just can’t stop thinking about Richard. The Last Island hurricane was a Category 4 storm when it hit. It’s been called the “first great storm” in the recorded history of Louisiana. It seems like every generation has one: 1893, 1915, 1947. Each with their stories and their myths. Each with their Richards. The last big storm in New Orleans was Hurricane Betsy, 1965. And then, for 40 years, it was quiet..."
What it Takes to Verify the Hottest Temperatures on Earth. One heavy-duty weather station. The Verge explains: "...To vet the Death Valley temperature, the WMO will first need to bring together an international team of top scientists. They’re given a background report to examine that includes details on the location where the temperature was recorded, the type of equipment used, regional weather conditions during the time of the observation, and any other pertinent information. There are strict standards for how temperatures should be taken. For example, the sensor needs to be shaded and lifted above the ground to avoid getting an observation that’s misleadingly hot. Over the years, the process for vetting weather extremes has become more rigorous. A new step was added last year: transporting the equipment that took the observation to a lab to test it..."
Image credit: " NOAA.
Fires Burning in California Already Among Worst in History. And a story at Buzzfeed points out we are only at the beginning of the traditional fire season in the western USA: "...As the fires continue to prompt evacuation order after evacuation order, firefighting experts and scientists say 2020 already looks far worse than 2017 and 2018. University of California, Berkeley, professor Michael Gollner, who studies wildland fires, explained that while the state has seen these types of large fires before, the size and scale of the simultaneously burning blazes are “shocking and remarkable” and highlight the dramatic impacts of changing climate. In 10 days, the LNU and SCU complexes have already become some of the largest the state has ever seen. Normally, these types of fires are caused by or worsened by intense winds, but Gollner told BuzzFeed News that they "didn't happen under the highest wind conditions..."
California Wildfires Can Create Their Own Terrifying Weather. WIRED.com delves into fire weather, and how massive blazes can ignite new blazes scores of miles downwind: "...These wildfires even create their own weather, further changing wind patterns. “They get so big that they can create their own sorts of weather patterns because of all the heat and moisture release,” says Nick Nauslar, a meteorologist at the National Interagency Coordination Center, which helps mobilize resources for wildfires in the US. “And you get a very turbulent environment. Winds become erratic and also stronger than they normally would be, because you've just put this huge fire in a complicated landscape.” Think about a campfire: As the fire heats the air, it rises up through the treetops, carrying smoke and embers with it. Now, scale that up into a fire that’s consuming a whole landscape..."
Tracking Smoke From Western Wildfires. NOAA has tools to be able to track current and future smoke over time. That milky-white sky overhead? Smoke from hundreds or even thousands of miles away.
Image credit: NOAA, showing expected smoke density midday on Tuesday. Here's another way to visualize the spread of smoke.
"Iowa's Katrina": Help is Slow to Come for Storm-Battered State. This Washington Post story ran last week, but I wanted to amplify what's happening just to our south in terms of storm relief: "A week after a devastating wind storm ripped through a swath of the Midwest, thousands in Iowa remain without power, corn and soybean plants lie bent and broken in the fields, and anger is rising among residents who say state officials and Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds did not seek aid quickly enough in the powerful storm’s aftermath. Hurricane-force winds gusting up to 112 mph in the rare derecho storm flattened 37 million acres of crops and damaged many homes and businesses, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture..."
Photo credit: "A downed power line in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, the epicenter of damage from a derecho with hurricane-force winds that left thousands without power." (KC McGinnis for The Washington Post)
Why Derechos Are So Devilishly Hard to Predict. Some context from WIRED.com was helpful in explaining why these freakish wind storms are so difficult to predict days in advance: "...And unlike the path and severity of hurricanes, which scientists have gotten good at forecasting days or even weeks in advance, predicting where and when a derecho will form remains one of the most challenging tasks facing meteorologists. The difficulty comes down to two things: patchy data and the complexity of the storm itself. Derechos can arise at random, almost out of nowhere, says Victor Gensini, a meteorology professor at Northern Illinois University. On many days during the year, the ingredients are all present for a derecho—but they’re missing something to start the storm. “In other words,” he says, “you need a trigger...”
Transitioning to Renewable Energy Isn't So Simple. Just Look at California. Mother Jones delves into the challenges of delivering reliable baseload power when it's needed the most: "...For years, renewable energy enthusiasts have insisted that most of the problems of the electric grid were caused by outdated and inflexible coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy technologies. A system built on solar panels and wind turbines, smart meters, electricity storage, and payments for flexible demand would lower costs and improve reliability for everyone. Some academic studies showed that renewables could easily supply 80 percent or more of an electric grid’s demands. But with non-hydroelectric renewable technologies, mostly solar and wind, generating about 30 percent of California’s electricity today, we are witnessing the types of obstacles and problems that these new technologies introduce..."
Image credit: Department of Energy.
In Event of Moon Disaster. President Nixon never had to deliver horrific news, but a group of researchers set out to show how his likeness and voice can be (deep-faked) into delivering a speech. We're getting to the point where, soon, we may be unable to tell real video from manipulated video. Check it out at moondisaster.org - only 6 minutes long. Take the quiz at the end. How did you do?
Good News: Asteroid Close Encounter November 2 SHOULD Miss Earth. It's 2020 so I'm keeping my expectations low. Here's a clip from CNN.com: "...The celestial object known as 2018VP1 is projected to come close to Earth on November 2, according to the Center for Near Earth Objects Studies at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It was first identified at Palomar Observatory in California in 2018. "Asteroid 2018VP1 is very small, approximately 6.5 feet, and poses no threat to Earth. If it were to enter our planet's atmosphere, it would disintegrate due to its extremely small size," NASA said in a statement. "NASA has been directed by Congress to discover 90% of the near-Earth asteroids larger than 140 meters (459 feet) in size and reports on asteroids of any size..."
90 F. high in the Twin Cities on Tuesday.
79 F. average high on August 25.
75 F. high on August 25, 2019.
August 26, 1915: Unseasonably cold air leads to killing frosts across Minnesota, with a low of 23 degrees at Roseau.
WEDNESDAY: Hot, sticky sunshine. A few late-day T-storms may be severe. Winds: SW 10-20. High: 91
THURSDAY: Slightly cooler. Nighttime T-storms. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 71. High: 84
FRIDAY: Morning showers, cooler breeze arrives. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 67. High: 79
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny and refreshing. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 61. High: 75
SUNDAY: Some sun, nighttime showers, storms. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 59. High: 79
MONDAY: Wet start, then slow clearing. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 61. High: 73
TUESDAY: Plenty of sunshine, comfortably cool. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 56. High: 72
Smoke sunset photo taken Tuesday evening at MSP: Paul Douglas
Climate Stories...
Fast-Moving California Wildfires Boosted by Climate Change. Scientific American connects the dots: "...The racing flames show how climate change is affecting the nation's most populous state, experts said. Hotter temperatures, less dependable precipitation and snowpack that melts sooner lead to drier soil and parched vegetation. Climate change also affects how much moisture is in the air, Swain said. "It's actually drying out the air during these extreme heat events," which zaps plants of additional moisture, Swain said. That left much of the state a tinderbox when hundreds of lightning strikes scorched the countryside last week. "This is really a testament to how dry the vegetation is, in terms of how quickly these fires spread when they were ignited by lightning," he said..."
Climate Chaos: Extreme Heat, Wildfires and Record-Setting Storms Suggest a Frightening Future is Already Here. Here's an excerpt from an analysis at CBS News: "...While climate catastrophes are typically spaced out in time and geographic location, right now the U.S. is dealing with multiple disasters. The Midwest is cleaning up from a devastating derecho that caused nearly $4 billion in damage to homes and crops, as nearly a quarter-million people in the West are under evacuation orders or warnings from fires that have burned over 1 million acres, and at the same time residents along the Gulf Coast are bracing for back-to-back landfalls of a tropical storm and hurricane. "This current stretch of natural catastrophe events in the United States are essentially a snapshot of what scientists and emergency managers have long feared," says meteorologist Steven Bowen, the head of Catastrophe Insight at AON, an international risk mitigation firm..."
Former U.S. Rep Bob Inglis: Florida Conservatives Embrace Climate Action. A funny thing happens when you can watch algae blooms and sea levels rise all around you - it sinks in that maybe this isn't a "natural cycle". Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from my friend, Bob Inglis, at Florida Today: "...Free market solutions to climate change are embedded in conservative principles and supported by right-of-center economists. You don’t need to grow the government or rely on red tape riddled regulations to solve the climate crisis. But you do need conservative leadership, like that of DeSantis. Conservatives need to return home to our economic and environmental roots and commit to rebuilding this country on a clean energy economy or else more lives, ecosystems and property will be lost, while the economy fails to rebound."
US Cities Could Face Nearly 30 Times More Exposure to Extreme Heat by 2100, Study Finds. CNN has a summary of new research and projections: "...But the extreme heat baking the Western US is a mere preview of what could be coming: A new study finds that in the future, the heat risk facing the country's biggest cities could be far greater than previously thought. Without cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, major US cities could see roughly between 13 and 30 times more population-adjusted exposure to extreme heat by 2100 as compared to the beginning of this century, the study found. The study was published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and adds to the abundant evidence that mankind's ability to halt global warming and adapt to rising temperatures will be two of the defining challenges of this century..."
Nuclear Plants Face More Heat Risk Than They're Prepared to Handle. Bloomberg has the story; here's an excerpt: "... A 2019 Bloomberg review of correspondence between the commission and owners of 60 plants concerning those assessments found that 54 of their facilities weren’t designed to handle the flood risk they now face. The new report is the result of an analysis conducted by Four Twenty Seven Inc., a climate risk data company Moody’s acquired last year. The group evaluated the potential effects of heat stress, water stress, hurricanes, flooding, and rising sea levels on 57 U.S. nuclear power plants over the next 20 years. It found that while a handful of plants—including Cooper Nuclear Station in Nemaha, Neb. and Prairie Island in Goodhue, Minn.—face severe risk from floods, far more either will face or already face “red flag” conditions from heat..."
File image: Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Climate Change and the American Political Agenda. An Op-Ed at Columbia University's Earth Institute caught my eye; here's an excerpt: "...The science and facts of climate change continue to become more difficult to refute, in this sense we are seeing a repeat of the issue of smoking and cancer. For years, tobacco companies and the senators from tobacco states refused to believe the science about smoking and cancer. Once that battle was lost, and the connection was irrefutable, the tobacco interests focused on the nature of regulation. In climate change, we see a similar effort to redefine the issue by no longer focusing on the problem, but on the proposed solution. In this view, climate change policy will destroy jobs and impair the economy: “Maybe global warming is real, but it’s not worth sacrificing my SUV for.” The fact that you could buy an electric SUV powered by renewable energy is conveniently ignored..."
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(Update) Slight Severe Risk Today - "Laura" Now a Major Category 3 Hurricane - Minneapolis Star Tribune
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