One clue to watch when monitoring severe weather potential for your area is to check out NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center’s mesoscale discussions (MD). These technical severe weather discussions highlight potential severe weather areas and give guidance as to the probability of severe weather watches.
Here’s NOAA’s MD for southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities area issued late Monday afternoon. It gives a 40 percent chance for a weather watch through Monday afternoon but indicates higher chances for a watch Monday evening.
A more certain and predicable severe threat is expected to materialize this evening/tonight as a strengthening low-level jet supports warm-air advection storms north of the warm front.
Storms after dark
NOAA’s latest short-range forecast models still favor storm development after dark through midnight in or near the greater Twin Cities area. Here's NOAA’s latest 18z (1 PM initiation) NAM 3 km resolution model run.
NOAA NAM 3 km model output from 8 p.m. Monday to 2 a.m. Tuesday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits
Keep an eye and ear out for possible severe weather watches and warnings tonight. And remember to check out up to the minute updates on the MPR severe weather live blog.
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August 25, 2020 at 05:15AM
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Monitoring severe weather risk tonight - Minnesota Public Radio News
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