As we head into the work week, a set-up in the Southern and Central United States brings the potential risk for strong to severe thunderstorms for the next few days. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted several areas from Monday afternoon through Wednesday as we forecast an incoming upper level trough, our active pattern starts with the Texas Panhandle and Southern Plains:
As an upper level trough digs in, a surface low brings in a dryline set-up that will ignite thunderstorms in west Texas. There is still some low confidence on how quickly these storms will develop based on how much capping we have in the atmosphere. Once storms bubble up there is a marginal risk they may become severe bring a hail and wind threat.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal (level 1, on a scale of 1 to 5) risk for severe storms for west Texas through the Oklahoma panhandle. This is on a conditional basis for cities like Amarillo through Lubbock Texas where storms are forecast to pop.
Our forecast models are likely to be underdoing the thunderstorm development for Monday afternoon but here is a look at a few areas that may see these storms develop.
As our low pressure center brings in an associated cold front, it will run into some Gulf moisture and bring better chances for more widespread storm activity and fuel for storms. The Storm Prediction Center upgrades the Tuesday risk to slight (level 2, on a scale from 1 to 5) for areas highlighted in yellow where the higher risk for thunderstorms to reach severe criteria reside.
Northeast Oklahoma through the Ozarks and the Southern Plains of Kansas will see the potential for severe storms for Tuesday.
Forecast models show some initial rainy activity Tuesday morning but likely with some afternoon clearing in this warm sector, by the time the low center moves in storms will get stronger.
By Wednesday, this cold front continues to move into the Tennessee River Valley and brings another risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.
These cold front storms will continue to move in a moisture-rich and warm environment which will increase thunderstorm and severe activity.
For the latest on this severe potential, be sure to tune into WeatherNation!
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April 05, 2021 at 12:50AM
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Southern Severe Storm Outlook - WeatherNation
"severe" - Google News
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