The possibility of severe thunderstorms has been increased in the afternoon update from NOAA’s experts on severe weather. Parts of southern Michigan are placed in the most threatening part of the severe weather area this afternoon and evening.
The highest chance of severe weather this afternoon is what the Storm Prediction Center calls its “enhanced risk” area. The risk categories are marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate and high in the order of increased chances and increased severity.
Michigan usually has an enhanced risk area once or twice a year.
The enhanced risk area is the orange area. Slight risk is in the yellow area. Marginal risk is the dark green area.
The enhanced risk area includes Detroit, Ann Arbor, Lansing, Jackson, Kalamazoo and Battle Creek. Grand Rapids is officially just outside the enhanced risk area.
The slight risk of severe thunderstorms has been moved northward to a larger area covering Bay City, Saginaw, Midland, Mount Pleasant, Flint and Ludington.
This overall severe weather risk doesn’t break down which types of severe weather are most likely in an area. Remember, severe weather is officially tornadoes, wind gusts over 58 mph and one inch diameter or larger hail.
The tornado forecast is just below.
Tornado chance forecast for the afternoon and evening of April 7, 2020.
The highest chance of an isolated tornado or two is in the brown area. It’s the same area as the morning forecast, and covers southern Michigan along I-94 and south of I-94. Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, Jackson, Coldwater and Monroe are in the higher tornado risk area.
Severe thunderstorms that produce isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible.
Damaging wind forecast for afternoon and evening of April 7, 2020.
In the red area above, there is a 30 percent chance that thunderstorms will produce some spots with 58 mph wind gusts or higher.
Large hail forecast. Black hatched area could have hail 2 inches in diameter or larger.
Finally, large hail may be one of the main concerns with this storm system. The black hatched area over southern Michigan, northern Indiana and Ohio could have hail over 2 inches in diameter.
The severe weather may remain isolated. However, there is also the risk of a solid line of thunderstorms forming and bring a more widespread wind gust event as the storms move through southern Michigan.
Here’s the timeline:
Radar forecast from 5 p.m. April 7, 2020 to midnight April 8, 2020.
A line of thunderstorms should develop in Wisconsin near Lake Michigan between 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. The line of thunderstorms will move into Michigan by 6 p.m. and then move southeast through the evening. Look for any potential thunderstorms, if they become severe, to move across southern Lower between 6 p.m. and midnight. The first half of that time period with be the time of concern for the west half of Lower Michigan. The second half of the evening is when the storms could hit southeast Lower Michigan.
Watch for more updates on severe weather from me on MLive.com. If live continuous coverage is needed, monitor MLive’s Facebook page.
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April 08, 2020 at 02:13AM
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‘Enhanced’ severe storm risk means a few tornadoes, 70 mph gusts and golf-ball size hail possible in Michigan - MLive.com
"severe" - Google News
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