A major weather outbreak with widespread severe storms and tornadoes, some significant, is expected Wednesday across the central United States and Mississippi Valley. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has posted a somewhat rare level 4 out of 5 risk of severe weather that covers more than 5 million Americans, but broader severe storm chances cover about 40 million.
“Several tornadoes with some strong, widespread damaging winds, some of which could be significant, and large to very large hail will likely occur,” wrote the Storm Prediction Center.
Storms on Monday dropped softball-size hail and a few tornadoes in Arkansas, triggering a dire “tornado emergency” at the Air Force base north of Little Rock. A powerful tornado on Tuesday narrowly missed Jarrell, Tex., on a path to the northwest; the town was largely leveled on May 27, 1997, by an F5 tornado that killed 27 people. Other tornadoes touched down in Iowa.
Wednesday marks the peak of the multiday outbreak and represents a temporary end to what’s been a rambunctious spate of atmospheric fury. March went into the books as the most active on record for tornadoes, with 218 reported. Five days during the month featured at least three or more tornadoes that were rated EF2 or greater. April has continued at breakneck pace but should settle with a period of quiescent weather likely next week.
This is a confirmed tornado to the SW of Salado. This is likely just inside the Bell county line to the NE of Florence and NW of Jarrell. Radar confirmed a Tornado Debris Signature as well. https://t.co/YA3VRFY9Oj
— NWS Austin/San Antonio (@NWSSanAntonio) April 12, 2022
A hefty dip in the jet stream, known as a trough, is surging east across the Plains. Nestled within it is a lobe of high-altitude cold air, low pressure and spin known as a “jetmax.” The arrival of frigid air aloft will encourage milder surface air to rise, with that ascent amplified by the increasing amount of spin.
Storms fired Tuesday along a dryline, or the interface between arid air from the Desert Southwest and moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico. The clash between air masses, coincident with a strong cold front surging east, is kicking up pockets of air and yielding severe thunderstorms. A change of wind speed or direction with height, known as wind shear and imparted by the jet stream, will foster rotation within storms.
On the backside of the counterclockwise-spinning surface low, moisture is wrapping northwestward into cold air tugged down from Saskatchewan. That’s brewed a significant blizzard with widespread 1-to-2-foot snow totals across North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
Areas affected
Surrounding that is a still-formidable level 3 out of 5 “enhanced risk” of severe weather that covers cities such as Indianapolis; Springfield, Ill.; St. Louis; Shreveport, La.; Jackson, Miss.; Nashville; and Bowling Green, Ky. A slight risk encompasses areas from Milwaukee to the Gulf Coast, including Chicago, New Orleans and Mobile, Ala.
It’s quite a sprawling risk area, but that’s because of the parent storm system’s “warm sector,” or the slice of warmth wafting north ahead of the cold front. Because the low is tracking so far north through the Northern Tier, the warm sector rides all the way north to the Great Lakes. That makes for a lot of real estate being impacted by severe storms.
Timing and hazards
Storms will form in two main batches Wednesday — as a squall line along the cold front and as individual discrete cells ahead of the line.
The squall line will probably be a QLCS, or quasi-linear convective system; that’s meteorological jargon for a squall line with embedded kinks of rotation. Damaging-to-destructive straight-line winds of 60 to 70 mph, along with a few embedded quick-hitting tornadoes, are likely.
Supercell thunderstorms, which are separated from neighbors and, as a result, don’t have to compete for resources, will tap into the full volatility of the atmosphere. They are capable of strong or long-track tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail to the size of pool balls.
Storms will be rumbling through central Arkansas and Missouri by lunchtime, closing in on the Mississippi River by 3 or 4 p.m. It’s unclear how numerous discrete supercells in advance of the line will be, but they’re likely to develop in any given area an hour or two before the line gets there.
Severe weather will peak in intensity in the afternoon and evening before storms congeal into a larger complex that will push east overnight. Fortunately, they will be outrunning their upper-level support, meaning that — at last — they will experience a weakening trend. Only a level 1 out of 5 marginal risk of severe weather will be present over the East Coast on Thursday.
"severe" - Google News
April 13, 2022 at 10:58PM
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Severe weather, tornado outbreak likely over central US on Wednesday - The Washington Post
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