- Several days of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected.
- Storms will begin in the southern Plains and Ozarks on Monday.
- The threat of severe weather will expand to much of the Mississippi Valley.
Confidence is growing in yet another severe weather outbreak in parts of the South and Plains in the week ahead for the fourth week in a row.
As is often the case several days in advance, there are still uncertainties in the details of this forecast, but the weather pattern for next week is straight out of a meteorology 101 textbook and gives us more confidence in this overall scenario.
The jet stream will take a large, southward plunge into the Southwest U.S. That will strengthen low pressure, pulling warm and humid air north from the Gulf of Mexico and also pulling colder air south from Canada.
An expansive, slow-moving spring storm with both severe thunderstorms and heavy snow will likely result from this amplified jet-stream pattern.
There are likely to be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms in similar areas over several days because of the slow-moving nature of this storm.
The first round of scattered severe storms could fire up Monday evening from north Texas to southern Missouri.
It remains somewhat uncertain how many storms develop, but those that do could produce very large hail and damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes could be possible late in the day. Very large hail is especially likely from north Texas into western Arkansas.
Monday's Forecast
Severe storms could become more numerous and widespread Tuesday and Wednesday as the large low pressure system nears.
Thunderstorms will be possible from the southern Plains to Iowa on Tuesday while severe storms are expected from central or eastern Iowa northward to eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
It's too soon to determine the magnitude of the severe weather threat, but at least some tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail and locally flooding rain are possible in these areas.
Tuesday's Forecast
By Wednesday, the area of concern grows from the Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest and Deep South.
The most likely area for severe thunderstorms centers around Arkansas, northern Louisiana and northwestern Mississippi.
Wednesday's Forecast
At least some scattered severe storms are possible in parts of the South and Ohio Valley Thursday, but given the forecast model challenges with timing of this spring storm, that remains more uncertain.
Given the recent rounds of severe weather across the South, there is at least some threat of flash flooding where heavy rain occurs. Some spots may pick up 2-4" of rain in the upcoming work week.
In addition, the spring storm will generate strong, dry winds over the southern High Plains of eastern New Mexico and western Texas from Sunday afternoon through at least Tuesday. These conditions could lead to rapid spread of existing or new wildfires in this drought-ridden area.
For now, make sure you have a plan in case of severe weather, including where to take shelter. Have multiple ways of receiving National Weather Service watches and warnings that can also wake you up at night, via smartphone wireless emergency alerts, The Weather Channel app and NOAA weather radio.
This could be the fourth severe weather outbreak in as many weeks. About 1,100 reports of severe weather have been received by the NWS in the three outbreaks since March 21.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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April 09, 2022 at 10:42PM
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New Storm System Expected to Produce Widespread Severe Storms in Plains, South | The Weather Channel - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com - The Weather Channel
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