After an unusual summer, Michiganders may still be itching for the opportunity to get out more and see what the state's natural beauty has to offer.
Luckily, SmokyMountains.com has recently released its annual fall foliage predictions, estimating where the best autumn colors and sights are around across the country, including Michigan.
Here's a week-by-week breakdown of all of the state's upcoming peaks:
Week of Sept. 21
Foliage in the Upper Peninsula and the tip of northern Lower Peninsula is at near-peak conditions during this week. The rest of Michigan will still be patchy or have partial coverage.
Week of Sept. 28
If you wanted a scenic road trip, Michigan's U.P and the northern counties of the Lower Peninsula would be your destination. Both areas will be seeing peak foliage colors at this time. Some parts in the middle, like Isabella County, where Mount Pleasant is, will be at near-peak conditions. The rest of the state, however, is still predicted to have partial colors.
Week of Oct. 5
The rest of the state is catching up to peak colors. The U.P. and the tip of the Lower Peninsula are now past peak, while mid-Michigan and upward are at peak fall colors.
Week of Oct. 12
If you live in the lower half of the state and want a shorter drive, head to places in the middle of the state, like Saginaw Bay or Grand Rapids, for peak fall colors. Areas like Southeast Michigan are still at near-peak colors.
Week of Oct. 19
With almost the entire state past peak, the best places to check out would be at the bottom of the Lower Peninsula, including Metro Detroit and cities or towns near the Indiana border.
Check out the interactive map below
(Tap on the dates below to view predicted changes. View a larger map on their website.)
The interactive map uses millions of pieces of data to predict fall foliage for every county in the country. Some of the data points in the complex algorithm include:
- NOAA historical temperatures
- NOAA historical precipitation
- NOAA forecast temperatures
- NOAA forecast precipitation
- Historical leaf peak trends
- Peak observation trends
- Historical model outputs from previous years
The map is maintained as a planning guide for visitors, but it should not be considered as the exact prediction, said company founder and statistical expert David Angotti.
"While the refinement of our algorithmic model over the past eight years has helped us achieve reliable results, accurate meteorology predictions are sometimes elusive and never 100% accurate," Angotti said in an email. "However, the good news is that the combination of nearly a decade of experience combined with great meteorological data sources ensures we achieve a higher accuracy over time."
Due to the ongoing pandemic, Angotti suspects there will be more visitors than usual trekking to see the fall colors this year.
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"Our travel brands have experienced a trend of increased visitation in vacation markets that visitors can drive to and decreased visitation where flights are required," he said. "Since many of the top fall foliage destinations are within an easy drive of major cities, we are expecting larger leaf-peeping crowds in many of the popular fall foliage destinations."
Nisa Khan is a data intern for the Detroit Free Press. Contact her at nkhan@freep.com and follow her on Twitter @mnisakhan.
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