Yesterday a decent sized chunk of Wyoming was under a Marginal (Level 1) risk for severe weather, and luckily not a whole lot panned out. Today, the region at risk is a good bit smaller than yesterday, but the risk is also a bit higher. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) today has issued a Slight (Level 2) risk for severe weather for Southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle, including Laramie, Cheyenne, and Scottsbluff. The primary risks are hail and strong wind gusts, but the possibility of an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
A low pressure has set up in the northeastern corner of Wyoming will be bringing a cold front through the state, resulting in the coolest day of the week for most locations either today or tomorrow. In addition, a stationary front along the southeastern part of the state and the Nebraska Panhandle will escalate the chance for severe weather this afternoon by creating some instability. The storms will fire up as the cold front moves through in the afternoon and early evening hours, likely beginning between 2 and 3 PM MDT. There is plenty of storm energy available across Wyoming, however the moisture is primarily located in the southeastern part of the state and eastward. This will limit any chances places such as Casper and Riverton have of seeing storms this afternoon, much less severe weather. Depending on how the storms form once they fire up will determine what the greatest threat is. The likely scenario is that early on the storms will be small and independent, but they will end up merging as they push southeast into Nebraska and Colorado, enhancing the straight line wind threat and reducing the tornado threat. A lack of wind shear (change of wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere) will also limit the tornado threat for Wyoming. There is more abundant wind shear in northeast Colorado, which will slightly escalate the tornado risk there. The primary risk for Wyoming will likely be hail, which per usual presents a big problem to farmers in the region.
Following today, more scattered storms will be possible tomorrow, however the severe weather risk will likely not be as high as this afternoon. Sunshine will then make a return come Thursday and bring summer heat into the weekend.
CHEYENNE, Wyo. (Wyoming News Now) -
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August 05, 2020 at 12:08AM
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