We are in a weather pattern that could have a clump of severe thunderstorms rolling through Lower Michigan each day for the next five days. The Storm Prediction Center highlights this possibility in their severe weather forecasts through Thursday.
Michigan is situated right now on the outer edge of a very hot dome of air. We also have quite a cool blob of air just to our northeast in Canada. This puts the jetstream, or storm track, right over Michigan now. Since the heat isn’t moving much and the cool isn’t moving much, we will stay right in the storm track for several days. We actually won’t kick out of the storm track until midday Saturday.
Here is a series of severe weather forecasts going from today through Thursday. We may even still be in the severe weather track Friday and Saturday, but the Storm Prediction Center doesn’t make severe forecasts that far out unless a storm looks very severe. But the overall pattern tells me we will still have to watch for severe storms Friday and Saturday, and possibly the strongest of the severe storms then. Get ready for a fairly stormy period today through Saturday.
The first period of severe storms could be late tonight and Wednesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center says an area from the western U.P. to northwest and west-central Lower Michigan could have a clump of severe storms overnight.
Severe thunderstorm forecast from Tuesday afternoon through 8 a.m. Wednesday
As of early this Tuesday afternoon, the only type of severe weather they are forecasting is large hail. Park your good car or all of your cars in the garage overnight.
Severe hail forecast from Tuesday afternoon to 8 a.m. Wednesday.
This radar forecast from a model I like in this situation shows the line of storms probably developing in the western U.P. in the middle of the night and racing south across Lower Michigan Wednesday morning.
Radar forecast from midnight tonight to 10 a.m. Wednesday.
I have to keep you on track for the timeframe of each of these severe weather forecasts. The next set of forecasts are for 8 a.m. Wednesday to 8 a.m. Thursday. The eastern part of Lower Michigan, along with central and southeast Lower Michigan, are in the target for severe storms Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A slight chance of isolated tornadoes is even in the forecast for the Saginaw/Bay City/Midland area, Mount Pleasant, Flint, Lansing, Jackson, Ann Arbor, Detroit and Grand Rapids. Watch for updates on the tornado forecast area.
General severe weather outlook from 8 a.m. Wednesday to 8 a.m. Thursday.
Tornado risk from 8 a.m. Wednesday to 8 a.m. Thursday
Severe wind outlook for 8 a.m. Wednesday to 8 a.m. Thursday.
The longer range severe weather forecast for Thursday into Friday morning shows far southern Michigan in the chance for severe storms. This is a long range forecast in terms of severe storms, especially in this fast-paced pattern. So watch for significant updates to Thursday and Friday’s severe weather forecast.
General severe weather outlook from 8 a.m. Thursday to 8 a.m. Friday.
We usually get in this edge-of-heat storm pattern once or twice a summer. The next few days will definitely be a period to stay updated here on weather if you are going to be out in the elements.
"severe" - Google News
August 23, 2023 at 12:09AM
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5-day stint of severe thunderstorms possible for Michigan - MLive.com
"severe" - Google News
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