UPDATE: Storm risk upgraded for big part of Michigan, 75 mph wind gusts possible
The heat and humidity late this afternoon are going to give lots of fuel to potentially significant severe thunderstorms across southern Lower Michigan late this afternoon or evening.
Hot temperatures and very high humidity this afternoon will give buoyancy to the air and make it rise to higher parts of the atmosphere this afternoon and evening. That is step one in severe thunderstorm development. The Storm Prediction Center is a little more confident today about exactly where and approximately when thunderstorms will erupt.
The overall severe weather forecast shows the yellow shaded area from Bay City, Mount Pleasant and Grand Rapids southward in the highest chance for severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorms could develop over northern Lower Michigan this afternoon and become severe as they roll into the steam of southern Lower Michigan.
The severe weather would probably occur in the 4 p.m. to midnight period.
The general severe thunderstorm forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening, August 24, 2023
Because of the high instability expected this afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center even highlights an area of southern Lower Michigan that could have ‘significant wind gusts’ over 75 mph. The forecast below is for the chance of severe wind gusts in the thunderstorms. The yellow area has a 15% chance of severe gusts. That’s not a really high chance. Much of the same area has a 10% chance of 75 mph gusts or higher. At 75 mph, wind gusts start to do significant damage. Flint, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Jackson, Kalamazoo, Ann Arbor and Detroit are all in the significant wind gust potential.
Severe wind gust forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening, August 24, 2023. The black hatched area has a 10 percent chance of gusts over 75 mph.
They also find there is enough shear in this evening’s set-up to create an isolated tornado or two.
Tornado forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening, August 24, 2023
Large hail forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening, August 24, 2023
If you like the guts of severe weather forecasting, here are a few parts of the Storm Prediction Center’s morning severe weather discussion.
“Most guidance shows strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE 3000-5000+ J/kg) developing along/south of a weak front from southern WI/northern IL into Lower MI and much of the OH Valley. This very favorable thermodynamic environment will be aided by the presence of mid 70s to perhaps low 80s surface dewpoints, steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from an EML over the Plains, and robust daytime heating.”
MLCAPE is a way we measure how much pent-up energy is in the atmosphere. A MLCAPE of 5000 J/kg is the typical instability of a Kansas-type thunderstorm. It’s not the usual energy for a Michigan thunderstorm.
They also say, “If thunderstorms can initiate, they would likely become severe and pose an initial threat for both large hail and damaging winds across Lower MI given around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and very strong instability. Upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely along/south of a warm front, and the risk for severe/damaging winds would likely increase once an MCS(Mesoscale Convective System) develops. Given the potential for extreme instability, some threat for isolated 75+ mph winds may also exist across parts of southern Lower MI into northern OH when the MCS matures.”
An MCS is a big, organized cluster of severe storms that can survive for a long path.
So definitely keep an eye on the sky, the radar and here at MLive today.
"severe" - Google News
August 24, 2023 at 07:46PM
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Southern Michigan should watch for potentially ‘significant wind’ severe thunderstorms - MLive.com
"severe" - Google News
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