Our next rain is already lined up to sweep through Michigan. This next rain will be a quick moving cold front with a thin line of thunderstorms. Depending on the timeline, some of these storms could be severe.
Timing is everything when watching for severe thunderstorms along a summer cold front. The most unstable part of the day is when we have the heat of the late afternoon and early evening. If the line of thunderstorms moves through your area at that most severe time, you’ll need to pay attention.
Here is the radar forecast showing the cold front with thunderstorms in a solid line and sweeping southeast across all of Michigan. The cold front will bring the storms first to the Upper Peninsula late this evening and overnight tonight. The thunderstorms will enter northwest Lower Michigan Thursday morning and move quickly southeast. Right now the storms are timed for late morning and early afternoon across southern Lower Michigan. This is usually a time when severe thunderstorm activity is limited. We may luck out on a timing thing and miss numerous severe storms.
Radar forecast from 9 p.m. today, August 16 to 9 p.m. Thursday, August 17
The Storm Prediction Center still has two parts of Michigan in their severe weather outlook. You can get a feel they are timing the severe weather also.
Today the severe storms are most likely west of the Upper Peninsula and into the far western part of the U.P. The green shaded area from Ironwood to Houghton could have an isolated tornado late this evening.
Tornado risk at two percent for the very western part of the Upper Peninsula today, August 16, 2023
The main threat along a cold front is usually a burst of straight-line winds. Late today will be no exception. The line of thunderstorms could bring isolated severe wind gusts into the far western U.P. before the storms die down some overnight.
Severe weather forecast for Wednesday, August 16, 2023
By Thursday the Storm Prediction Center has a lower five percent chance of severe storms over the eastern two-thirds of Lower Michigan.
Severe wind gust risk at five percent for the brown shaded area for Thursday, August 17, 2023
The thunderstorms on Thursday will only last one to two hours at any one spot. The timing has been consistent in showing the late morning and early afternoon storms. I’d look for vigorously strong storms that could reach low end severe levels.
Remember a thunderstorm is officially severe when it produces 58 mph gusts or faster, one inch diameter hail or of course a tornado. In Thursday’s situation currently tornadoes are not expected.
Watch for updates here this evening and Thursday.
"severe" - Google News
August 16, 2023 at 05:01PM
https://ift.tt/H4WTiu8
Thin line of severe thunderstorms possible with classic summer cold front - MLive.com
"severe" - Google News
https://ift.tt/kViT0IL
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