- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from Kansas to Oklahoma.
- Thunderstorms with much-needed rain will develop over area the next several days.
- But they could also be too much of a good thing, with some flash flooding possible.
- This wetter pattern is likely to continue through the upcoming week.
A wetter pattern is bringing thunderstorms with soaking rain to parts of the Central and Southern Plains, but some of these thunderstorms will likely turn severe on Father's Day following calmer times in Tornado Alley.
The first rainfall for June was measured in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas Friday into early Saturday morning. Additional rainfall is possible on Saturday in eastern Kansas, much of Oklahoma and portions of Texas.
A Wetter Pattern Change
Fortunately, the stubbornly dry, hot pattern from earlier this month has finally retreated.
High pressure has dominated the region but that has changed. Jet stream disturbances will glide out of the Rockies as a number of frontal systems slide into the Plains, then stall well into next week.
Southerly winds will head north from the Gulf of Mexico into the stalled frontal boundary, then up the slope of the High Plains and Front Range of the Rockies, keeping humid air in place.
A boundary often in place over the Southern Plains that separates that more humid air from much drier, desert air to the west known as a dryline will also help trigger thunderstorms.
This will all result in a wetter pattern into the upcoming week.
A stronger disturbance will swing through the Plains on Sunday with a little added spin, some winds from the northwest and some drier air behind it. This disturbance will hit the moist air to the south and create the possibility of severe weather over the first few days of the upcoming week.
Some severe weather is possible each day, with threats of large hail, damaging thunderstorm winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.
The greatest threat of severe thunderstorms over the next couple of days will be on Sunday in parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. The main threat here will be damaging winds, but hail and a few tornadoes are also possible.
Sunday's Severe Thunderstorm Forecast
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day.)Scattered thunderstorms are expected to flare up virtually each afternoon and evening through much of next week in at least parts of the Plains. These more hit-or-miss storms could eventually merge and congeal into larger thunderstorm clusters at night and potentially bring more widespread rain to part of the parched Plains.
These disturbances will gradually moisten the Plains in the week ahead.
Parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas and northeastern Texas have the best chance of seeing the most rain from these repeated rounds of thunderstorms into next week.
Excessive rainfall could prompt flash flooding in parts of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas into early Sunday, according to NOAA.
Rainfall Outlook
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.)This should largely be a welcome change given the flash drought. But as often is the case with areas recently dry or in drought, this rain may end up being too much of a good thing.
Where slow-moving thunderstorms or clusters of storms stall briefly, flash flooding is possible.
Dry, Stormless Stretch Resulted in Drought Growth
Until Friday, an expansive area of the High Plains from western Kansas to western Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico and western Texas had turned much drier since April and plunged into drought, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor analysis.
Parts of the Central Plains have even gone without any tornado watches through the first half of the year.
Much of Kansas and western Oklahoma have not had any tornado watches even in June, where the risk of tornadoes is the greatest.
Tornado Watches So Far in 2020
Following an active April in the Southeast, May and June have been rather calm in the usually busy Plains states for tornadoes. This has led to a drop in the number of tornado reports relative to average.
Through June 19, the United States has seen nearly 800 reports of tornadoes while the average is 930 reports of tornadoes year to date.
Overall severe weather has largely avoided the Southern Plains this June.
The map below from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows where wind (blue), hail (green) and tornadoes (red) were reported in the first 19 days of June. Note the relative hole in reports from Kansas to eastern Oklahoma and much of Texas, despite the larger number of dots just north of the region.
June Severe Weather Reports
The reason for a relatively calm severe weather season from Kansas to Texas has been the northerly storm track that has directed storm systems, including multiple derechos, through the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains and the Great Lakes.
With a lack of storm systems in the Southern Plains, many cities have also been asking for even a little rain.
Dallas, Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma, are among the Southern Plains cities that hadn't reported any measurable rain this month through June 18.
But there was good news on that front.
Friday, a pair of thunderstorm clusters merged over Oklahoma, bringing a much-needed soaking to parts of the Sooner State, as well as much of Kansas and the northeast Texas panhandle.
Oklahoma City broke its dry streak on Friday in spectacular fashion with just over two inches of rain. Much of western and central Oklahoma picked up the first significant rain on Jun. 19.
The first rainfall in June also fell in parts of northern Texas from Friday into early Saturday. Dallas Love Field Airport picked up almost 4.5 inches during this period and there were reports of roadway flooding early Saturday. Wichita Falls measured just under an inch and Waco reported just over an inch as of early Saturday.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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Father's Day Could Bring Severe Weather in the Plains Following Dry, Calm June in Tornado Alley - The Weather Channel
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