Late June and early July has historically been the most likely time for some severe weather across Michigan. Friday’s late-day storm system will be right on schedule for possibly producing severe thunderstorms.
The severe weather risk is broken up into five categories. At the moment, the Storm Prediction Center has most of Lower Michigan in the second level of this five-level system. The discussion from the Storm Prediction Center mentions there may be a few things they see that would cause them to up the severe threat to level three.
Here’s the radar forecast from noon Friday to 6 a.m. Saturday.
Radar forecast from noon Friday, June 26, 2020 to 6 a.m. Saturday, June 27, 2020
I like this radar animation because it clearly shows you how a line of severe storms will evolve. We will see a line of storms forming in Wisconsin Friday afternoon and moving into northwest Lower first. The line of storms will then move southeast across Lower Michigan.
Timing of the storms is one of the most important aspects of whether storms will be severe or not at your location. Late afternoon and early evening have the highest chance of storms being severe because it is the hottest and most unstable part of the day. As we get toward midnight, thunderstorms usually weaken.
So where the storms are between 3 p.m. to 10 p.m. will have the highest chance of severe weather. Remember- we meteorologists consider severe weather as wind gusts over 57 mph, 1-inch hail or obviously a tornado.
Radar forecast at 8 p.m. Friday, June 26, 2020
If the storms stay on this timeline (watch for updates tomorrow), the western edges of Lower Michigan would have the highest chance of severe storms. The image above is the radar forecast at 8 p.m. Friday, which is still in the time where storms can remain severe.
Radar forecast at midnight Saturday, June 27, 2020
By midnight and a few hours after, the storms will be moving into southeast Lower Michigan. We could still have vigorous thunderstorms, but the risk of widespread severe storms would be lowering.
Here are the risks of different types of severe weather.
Chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point. (Storm Prediction Center)
As of late Thursday morning, the risk of an isolated tornado is in the northern half of Lower Michigan.
Chance of a damaging wind gust or large hail (Storm Prediction Center)
The rest of Lower Michigan has a 15% chance of spotty damaging wind gusts or one inch hail.
All of the storms should be over by Saturday morning. There could be just a quick secondary line of thundershowers in the far southern part of Lower Michigan.
For now, on this Thursday afternoon, just keep in mind you may have to deal with severe thunderstorms late tomorrow.
"severe" - Google News
June 25, 2020 at 11:22PM
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Michigan now in heart of severe weather season; Details on late Friday tornado, damaging gusts chances - MLive.com
"severe" - Google News
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