Hospitalizations and deaths in Colorado from the new coronavirus hit their highest level so far in the first two weeks of April, but experts predict more COVID-19 cases — and even a possible “secondary surge” — as social distancing restrictions start to relax.
In the two months since COVID-19 first was confirmed in Colorado, the state recorded its highest number of coronavirus deaths in a single day on April 9, when 35 people succumbed to the virus, according to data from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.
The trajectory of new deaths has been bumpy, but generally has moved downward since then, with new deaths in the single digits each day since April 30 — though it’s possible some haven’t yet shown up in state records because of lags in reporting.
“I am encouraged by the death data,” said Katie Colburn, an assistant professor of surgery at the University of Colorado’s Anschutz Medical Campus who has been involved in modeling the coronavirus pandemic. “I think there’s a positive trend.”
Hospitalizations appear to have a similar trajectory, hitting their peak on April 14 and bouncing around at a relatively high level for one to two more weeks before starting to trend downward. On the top day for hospitalizations, 888 people were receiving care for COVID-19 around the state. As of Wednesday, 636 people were.
The pattern of small dips and increases could have reflected localized outbreaks at a nursing home or a business, Colburn said. There is a trend of fewer people being admitted to the hospital in recent days, but it’s too early to be sure if that reflects hitting a plateau or a sustained decrease, she said.
The top day for new cases, based on estimates of symptom onset, was April 17, with 498 people saying they started to feel sick that day. On the last day with full data, April 24, about 334 people reported symptoms. Cases from the next two weeks are uncertain, because of delays in reporting, and the number of cases hasn’t followed any clear pattern.
The case data can’t be taken at face value, because the state’s capacity for testing has changed over the course of the pandemic, Colburn said. In the beginning, only people who were sick enough to be hospitalized were tested, but now a broader group can be swabbed, she said.
The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment described the current level of cases as a “plateau” rather than a steep drop-off.
“We are still at the beginning of the epidemic, and as we open up a bit and relax some restrictions we do expect to see some increase in cases,” the department said in a statement. “We all need to work together to continue to follow strategies such as continuing social distancing, wearing non-medical masks and protecting our most vulnerable to help slow the spread of the virus. Based on our decisions, we could go backwards or go forward.”
Projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington show deaths and new infections falling almost to zero in Colorado by the beginning of August, but their model assumes a high level of continued social distancing. It projects people in Colorado would be interacting about as much as they did on March 22 — one day before Gov. Jared Polis’ order that all bars, restaurants and non-essential services cease operations took effect.
Colorado has increased its hospital capacity enough to handle a “secondary small spike” as people begin moving around more, Colburn said. It’s clear that cases will increase, but by how much isn’t certain, because no one knows how people will behave or how much protection masks will offer, she said.
“Transmission is not gone and the likelihood of a secondary surge is high,” she said.
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Colorado’s coronavirus hospitalizations and deaths peaked in April, but health officials warn “we could go backwards” - The Denver Post
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