We’ll be watching the Doppler overnight and Wednesday across Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
A cold front sliding across our region will trigger scattered thunderstorms. A few of the storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging wind potential.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center places a slight risk for severe storms Wednesday across most of central and southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. (map above)
Here’s the technical forecast discussion for our region Wednesday.
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...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ozarks... As the upper trough/low moves east-southeastward, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along and east/southeast of a cold front. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will foster the development of moderate to locally strong instability from parts of MN into southeastern SD, NE, and northwestern IA. Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt will easily support supercells, with associated threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts. Isolated very large hail appears possible across parts of central/eastern NE and eastern MN/western WI with this activity. Based on consensus of latest guidance, have introduced a fairly broad Slight Risk to account for this supercell potential. The eastern extent of the severe risk should be modulated by the narrow zone of greater low-level moisture return.
The best chances for storms in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota favors early Wednesday morning, and again later Wednesday afternoon. NOAA’s HRRR model sows scattered storms forming across northern Minnesota overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. The forecast model loop below runs between 1 am and 7 pm Wednesday.
NOAA HRRR model between 1 am and 7 pm Wednesday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits
Spotty rainfall again
This next rainfall chance brings another patchwork rainfall pattern. The storms will be strong but scattered in coverage. That’s why the rainfall forecast map looks chaotic. Locations under stronger storms could pick up over half an inch of rain, while many areas go dry as the localized storms pass by.
NOAA HRRR model precipitation output through Wednesday.
NOAA via pivotal weather
Keep an eye and ear out for possible severe weather watches and warnings Wednesday.
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Scattered severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday - MPR News
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