Thunderstorms are likely to move into west-central and southwest Lower Michigan in the second half of this evening and continue into the middle of the night. These thunderstorms could produce segments of severe weather.
The time period for severe thunderstorms should be between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. The strongest thunderstorms look like they will come across the southern end of Lake Michigan and head through Muskegon, Grand Rapids, Holland, South Haven and Benton Harbor. The severe storms may be individual storms in these first mentioned cities, and then turn into a high wind gust line of storms. This line of storms could then head through Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Marshall, Coldwater, Lansing and Jackson.
It appears as though the line of storms will weaken as it moves into southeast Lower Michigan.
Here are the severe weather forecasts for tonight, with breakouts for tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. These forecasts were just issued at 12:27 p.m. The Storm Prediction Center actually trimmed some of the severe area, leaving just the far southwest corner in a meaningful risk of severe storms.
Overall severe weather risk for 1 p.m. July 4 to 8 a.m. July 5. For Michigan the severe weather time period is late evening and the middle of the night.
Risk of a tornado or two is at two percent in southwest Lower Michigan
Damaging wind gust forecast for this evening and overnight.
Large hail forecast for this evening shows the emphasis is not on hail, with only a five percent chance of large hail.
The radar forecast from model run to model run over the last several runs has been very consistent in showing the idea of severe thunderstorms tracking across about the southwest quarter of Lower Michigan. The models still show severe thunderstorms in a slightly larger area than the Storm Prediction Center forecast.
Here is the radar forecast from early this evening to 5 a.m. Tuesday.
Radar forecast from 6 p.m. July 4 to 5 a.m. July 5
We can definitely see how the far southwest corner has the greatest chance of severe thunderstorms.
So be prepared for a few severe thunderstorms over southwest Lower Michigan late this evening to just after midnight. For the rest of southern Lower, you may just have thunderstorms that wake you up with lightning and thunder.
"severe" - Google News
July 05, 2022 at 12:11AM
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Severe thunderstorm outbreak, with a possible tornado or two targets southwestern Lower Michigan - MLive.com
"severe" - Google News
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