A rapidly moving line of thunderstorms is expected to develop in eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon. Here’s a look at where that line of storms should develop, and what the chances for severe weather are for your area.
The driver of this expected line of thunderstorms is an upper level storm system that is very strong for this time of year. While the storm system is strong enough to set off significant severe weather, the energy from this storm is going to mostly stay north, across the Upper Peninsula. The moisture, heat and instability to feed storms will be disconnected from the upper level energy and hover over southeast Lower Michigan.
So a trailing piece of energy will move across Lower Michigan this afternoon and develop a thin line of thunderstorms. If you get hit by a thunderstorm this afternoon, it will be quick but it could be vigorous and severe.
Here is the radar forecast for this afternoon and evening. I don’t believe the model has an exact replica of what will happen, but it gives us the general look of storms this afternoon. The general placement of where the storms will occur is probably good.
Radar forecast from noon today to 8 p.m. this evening.
Look for a line of thunderstorms to develop somewhere along I-75 from Bay City and Saginaw south to Flint and somewhere in the Detroit area. These storms will develop between 1 p.m. and 3 p.m. The thunderstorms will then increase in size and intensity as they move into the Thumb.
Here is the severe weather forecast, broken down into severe weather types. The big picture is the Thumb, Flint, the Detroit area, Ann Arbor area and the rest of southeast Michigan could have a quick sweeping line of thunderstorms.
Overall severe weather chance for Wednesday afternoon, July 20.
Tornado chance forecast for Wednesday afternoon, July 20
High wind gust chance for Wednesday afternoon, July 20.
Large hail chance for Wednesday afternoon, July 20
If you get the rain in a storm this afternoon, it will only last five minutes to one-half hour. You will get one-tenth of an inch in the five minute storm to as much as one inch to two inches in the half hour thunderstorm.
I’ll keep my eye on if the storms are going to become severe. Like the MLive Facebook page. If storms become severe enough for me to need to warn you, I do it in a live broadcast on the MLive Facebook page.
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July 20, 2022 at 11:49PM
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Interesting afternoon weather as line of severe storms could develop - MLive.com
"severe" - Google News
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