The afternoon update on severe weather has increased the possibility and coverage of potentially significant wind gusts.
The Storm Prediction Center(SPC) issues an early afternoon update on severe possible this afternoon and overnight. There was a change that’s meaningful to Lower Michigan. SPC has placed a section of western and central Lower Michigan in the Enhanced Risk area, which is the orange area.
Afternoon update places an area in orange in an Enhanced Risk area. (Storm Prediction Center)
The Enhanced Risk of severe weather now fills an area from Ludington to Muskegon inland to Mount Pleasant and Alma.
You can easily see what SPC is forecasting. They expect a line of storms to move across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin and into western Lower Michigan.
The timing is still expected to bring the possible severe thunderstorms into Michigan overnight.
Here’s the latest radar forecast from the best severe weather model.
Radar forecast from 8 p.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Wednesday
The latest data still shows it could be a stormy midnight to 6 a.m. Wednesday period.
The Storm Prediction Center mentions that the atmosphere will stabilize some overnight, but the upper-level winds will increase. They feel the strong winds aloft could be brought to the surface in some thunderstorms, producing up to 75 mph gusts. The greatest chance of 75 mph gusts will be in the black hatched shaded area in Minnesota and Wisconsin. They are not predicting that these strong gusts will happen with certainty or be widespread in Michigan. They do want us to know that the strong upper level winds overnight could facilitate a powerful wind gust or two over west-central Michigan.
Afternoon wind gust forecast update puts a 30 percent chance of severe wind gusts over west-central Lower Michigan. (Storm Prediction Center)
So the fate of severe weather across Lower Michigan is still a story of weakening time frame of night versus increasing wind speeds aloft.
With these nighttime severe weather events, having a NOAA weather radio is a great safety item. You can also keep your phone nearby. If a tornado warning is issued where your phone is located, it will go off with the loud Amber Alert sounds. Unfortunately it probably won’t go off for significant straight-line winds.
Stay updated this evening here.
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June 03, 2020 at 01:51AM
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Increased chance, coverage of severe 75 mph gusts in afternoon severe storm update - MLive.com
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