Storm Prediction Center: Significant severe weather possible in Brazos Valley Monday - KBTX

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Monday is expected to bring the next round of active and stormy weather to the Brazos Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a majority of the area under a 3 out of 5 “enhanced” risk for severe storms.

WHAT IS AN ENHANCED RISK?

The highest potential for severe weather Monday has been placed in a line from Cameron to Navasota to Conroe and points north -- show in brown below.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed a majority of the Brazos Valley under a 3 out of 5 risk for severe weather Monday, March 21st(KBTX)

According to the agency, this is the third out of five potential risks for a severe weather day. It is defined as “Numerous severe storms possible. These storms are likely to be more persistent and/or widespread. A few could be intense.” With this risk, it is also mentioned that there is a 10% or greater chance of significant severe weather.

The last time any part of the Brazos Valley was included in this high of a risk: 314 days ago - May 9th, 2021.

IMPACTS / HAZARDS

As a potent weather maker moves into the Texas Panhandle Monday, the dynamics of the atmosphere suggest that significant severe weather could materialize during the afternoon and evening hours. Any storm that needs extra attention would be for (in the following order):

• Large, potentially destructive hail
• A few tornadoes
• Strong, damaging wind gusts in excess of 60-75mph
• Heavy rainfall that could produce a quick 1″ to 2″ creating low-lying or street flooding

By afternoon, potential for surface-based storm development is evident near advancing dryline across central Texas. Meanwhile farther east, storms along the southern portion of the larger/ongoing area of convection should also become surface-based with time. Strong/increasing flow with height, combined with substantial veering through the lowest 3km, will provide shear quite favorable for supercells. As such, along with potential for large hail with developing central Texas storms, risk for tornadoes should increase through the afternoon farther east

Important to note here that every storm in the Brazos Valley Monday will not be to this degree of intensity. While severe weather is highly anticipated, not every part of this higher risk will experience a severe storm. Rather, if a severe storm is to occur, this is the most likely area for it to do so.

TIMING

Scattered showers will be possible as early as sunrise Monday (more on why this could complicate the forecast for the day below). As drier air approaches the I-35 corridor from the west by afternoon, thunderstorms with an initial large hail concern will develop near the western Brazos Valley. Any storm that develops in the Brazos Valley during the afternoon hours could quickly spin up a destructive hail and tornado concern locally as they move west to east.

During the evening hours, this drier air will move a broken line of storms across the area. That will present a large hail and damaging wind concern, with a possible continued risk for a few weak tornadoes through very late Monday. Early indications suggest storms could be east and northeast of the Brazos Valley by 12am Tuesday

Something that will need to be worked on for MONDAY's severe weather concerns in the Brazos Valley: how much could early day showers hinder severe potential? (noted by @NWSSPC)

Showers early on could hold back instability from fully being actualized during the day #txwx pic.twitter.com/Cvkb0XhvCJ

— Shel Winkley (@KBTXShel) March 19, 2022

WHAT COULD CHANGE?

As shown above, scattered rain could start as early as sunrise Monday and continue for much of the day. If this were to occur, this could keep destabilization to a minimum, not allowing the more robust dynamics of the day from fully being actualized. The Storm Prediction Center mentions in their Saturday morning discussion “the blossoming of precipitation complicates the forecast for later in the day, casting uncertainty onto the degree of [instability] which may develop.”

In this case, a few severe storms could still be possible by evening. While this would be the best-case scenario, it remains a large uncertainty at this time.

There will be a need to monitor for additional rain and thunderstorms in the early hours of Tuesday morning as the associated cold front crosses the Brazos Valley before sunrise. A few elevated storms with gusty wind, small hail, and heavy rain could develop along this cold front.

RECEIVE SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS AND CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE KBTX PINPOINT WEATHER APP

Monday is a day that could be highly impactful for the Brazos Valley. As high resolution forecast data continues to sharpen on this event, a better understanding of how the day may play out will come into view over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Copyright 2022 KBTX. All rights reserved.

Adblock test (Why?)

"severe" - Google News
March 19, 2022 at 08:41PM
https://ift.tt/zoBDY5I

Storm Prediction Center: Significant severe weather possible in Brazos Valley Monday - KBTX
"severe" - Google News
https://ift.tt/P2pekIx
Shoes Man Tutorial
Pos News Update
Meme Update
Korean Entertainment News
Japan News Update

Bagikan Berita Ini