BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Monday is expected to bring the next round of active and stormy weather to the Brazos Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a majority of the area under a 4 out of 5 “moderate” risk for severe storms.
Monday Midday Update
The latest from the Storm Prediction Center has heightened our risk for severe weather this afternoon and tonight. An uncommon MODERATE 4 out of 5 (red) risk for the area has been issued, meaning numerous severe thunderstorms are likely, with very large hail and strong tornadoes being the main concern.
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Essentially, this does not change what is known about the forecast for the evening and overnight hours. Storms -- likely already severe -- are expected to reach parts of Milam and Lee Counties (western reaches of the area) by 5-6 p.m. Forecast models have dialed in on the potential of two specific and concerning thunderstorms -- one drifting along or north of Highway 79 through Milam, Robertson, and potentially Leon County. The second closer to Highway 21 through Lee, Burleson, Brazos, Madison, and Leon Counties. Additional storms will develop between 10 p.m. and midnight Tuesday that could initially support a tornado and large hail concern as well.
The last time the Brazos Valley was placed under a severe weather risk this high: April 2, 2017 -- 1,814 days ago.
Monday Morning Update
Consistency with morning data still suggest two rounds of strong/severe storms, with the most widespread being later this evening. Storms are still expected to get going along or just west of the I-35 corridor late in the afternoon, likely severe, and maintaining strength as they move east into the Brazos Valley. These will carry our greatest hail and tornado concern for the event.
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More widespread activity looks likely after dinnertime. These will still carry a tornado and hail concern, but we will shift to more of a wind and heavy rain threat, especially east, through the overnight.
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A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the eastern half of the area through tomorrow morning. While some isolated flooding is possible west of this area, this has consistently been the spot where models have painted some isolated totals of 5 or even 6″ or more through early Tuesday. Farther west, totals are likely to fall in the 1-2″+ area, but localized amounts of more are possible.
WHAT IS AN ENHANCED RISK?
The highest potential for severe weather Monday is now circled around an area from north of Waco to Austin to Houston. This puts the Brazos Valley in the middle of this 3 out of 5 risk on the Storm Prediction Center’s scale.
IMPACTS / HAZARDS
As a potent weather maker moves into the Texas Panhandle Monday, the dynamics of the atmosphere suggest that significant severe weather could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms are expected to develop on a dryline near I-35 between 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. before moving east into the Brazos Valley by evening. Any storm that needs extra attention would be for (in the following order):
- A few tornadoes. There is a 10% or greater chance for an EF2 - EF5 to form within any 25-mile point of the Brazos Valley
- Large, potentially destructive hail. There is a 10% or greater chance for hail up to the size of an egg (2″) within any 25-mile point of the Brazos Valley
- Strong, damaging wind gusts in excess of 60-75mph
- Heavy rainfall could produce a quick 1″ to 2″ under stronger storms. Localized 3″ to 4″ totals are not ruled out under the most intense storms, should they form
Important to note here that every storm in the Brazos Valley Monday will not be to this degree of intensity. While severe weather is highly anticipated, not every part of this higher risk will experience a severe storm. Rather, if a severe storm is to occur, this is the most likely area for it to do so.
TIMING
Scattered showers will be possible as early as sunrise Monday. While severe weather is not overly anticipated during the afternoon hours, a few rumbles of thunder will be possible by 3 p.m. or later. These storms will need to be monitored, but are of low concern, at this time. The main timing for any severe or destructive weather:
- Storms develop 4 - 6 p.m. along or just west of I-35 on the dryline. These storms are expected to develop rapidly and become severe
- Western Brazos Valley: Monday 6 - 9 p.m.
- Central Brazos Valley (including Bryan-College Station): Monday 8 - 10 p.m.
- Eastern Brazos Valley: Monday 10 p.m. - Tuesday 12 a.m.
- Storms exit the Brazos Valley: Tuesday 1 - 3 a.m.
Regardless, a round of strong and severe storms is expected to pass through the Brazos Valley from west to east Monday evening. This is the time that the Brazos Valley needs to be highly weather aware.
RECEIVE SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS AND CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE KBTX PINPOINT WEATHER APP
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Severe weather risk UPGRADED Monday into Monday night: Here's what you need to know - KBTX
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