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Chicago, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek in mid-level severe storm, isolated tornado, large hail threat for Father’s - MLive.com

Michigan and some surrounding states have the first authentic risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area across southern Lower Michigan that could have severe thunderstorms.

The forecasts below outlines the varying degrees of severe thunderstorm threats on Father’s Day.

damaging wind father's day

Forecast for the threat of damaging winds on Father's Day. (Source: Storm Prediction Center)

Starting with the damaging wind threat makes sense because it gives us an idea of the most likely path of a line of severe thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms could develop in Iowa and move across northern Illinois, Northern Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan.

The Storm Prediction Center says the initial thunderstorms early Sunday afternoon could be “large to very large” hail producers. The large hail forecast below shows a black hatched area, which is the most likely area for large hail. Only the southwest corner of Lower Michigan has a significant threat of large hail.

large hail Father's Day

Forecast for the risk of large hail on Father's Day. (Source: Storm Prediction Center)

The Storm Prediction Center does put the southern third of Lower Michigan in a chance of isolated tornadoes.

father's day tornado risk

Forecast for risk of a tornado on Father's Day.. (Source: Storm Prediction Center)

Grand Rapids, Lansing, Flint, Detroit, Ann Arbor, Jackson, Kalamazoo and all of southern Lower are in the five percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point.

To give you a feel for how the thunderstorms may develop, here is a good weather computer model that usually forecasts accurately in this typical situation.

radar forecast

Radar forecast from 5 p.m. Sunday, June 20 to 2 a.m. Monday, June 21

The general scenario is potent thunderstorms should move into southwest Lower Michigan between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. Sunday, then move across southern Lower through the rest of the evening. The far southeast could have severe weather hold off until 9 p.m. or 10 p.m.

Get ready for possibly our first line of severe thunderstorms this year, especially if you live anywhere along I-94 and southward to the Indiana and Ohio borders.

Watch for updates tomorrow on MLive.com.

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Chicago, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek in mid-level severe storm, isolated tornado, large hail threat for Father’s - MLive.com
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