Syracuse, N.Y. -- Today will be slightly less stifling in Upstate New York than the past several days, but the chances of damaging thunderstorms will rise.
“Scattered damaging winds are expected from New England to Pennsylvania, starting around midday and continuing through dusk,” said the Storm Prediction Center. “Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur by midday with a broad swath of scattered coverage during the afternoon.”
Most of Upstate has a 15% chance of severe storms today, while the Capital Region is in the 30% range, said the storm center, a branch of the National Weather Service. A severe storm has winds of at least 58 mph and/or hail 1 inch or more in diameter. Winds that strong can knock down trees and power lines.
Today’s temperatures will be cooler, relatively speaking. We’ll drop from the 90s of the past four days to the low 80s, but humidity remains oppressive, in the 70% range. The combination will make the air feel more like 90 degrees. In parts of the Southern Tier and Capital Region, where the heat index could rise above 100 degrees, heat advisories remain in effect today.
A cold front -- again, a relative term -- will push through Upstate New York today, clashing with the hot, humid air rising from the ground. The timing of that front is what will determine who gets the highest odds for the worst storms. Right now, that looks like the Capital Region.
“Damaging winds are the primary threat,” said the weather service office in Albany. “However, frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours are also expected. Any storm will be capable of producing ponding of water on roadways and potential flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.”
That’s true across most of Upstate: Individual storms could drop rain at rates greater than an inch an hour, which could be particularly problematic in areas that got soaked Tuesday. Isolated storms Tuesday afternoon dropped 1.7 inches of rain the Herkimer County community of Springfield and an inch or more in parts of the Finger Lakes.
Today’s storms are likely to be more widespread and intense than those that popped up Tuesday. They could start as early as noon in Western New York and make their way east and northeast, diminishing after dark in the eastern half of the state.
The cold front generating these storms will also drop temperatures considerably. While highs since the weekend have stayed stubbornly in the 90s in much of Upstate, they’ll likely remain in the upper 70s through the holiday weekend. Temperatures in the 80s are expected to return by early next week.
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Heat backs off a little today in Upstate NY, but severe storm chances rise - syracuse.com
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