5:50 p.m. — Severe storm warning dropped for Beltway and locations to the south and west but new warning for areas north of Beltway into Baltimore
The storms approaching the Beltway from the west have lost some of their punch and the severe thunderstorm warning which had been in effect was dropped and not extended east. But the storms just north of Rockville through western Howard County are intense, prompting a severe thunderstorm warning for that zone east into Baltimore.
Although the warning was dropped for the Beltway and the District, storms with heavy rain and some lightning around Sterling and Reston are headed east and will affect areas north of Interstate 66 through southern Montgomery County and northwest D.C. over the next hour.
5:40 p.m. — Storms should reach Beltway around 6 p.m. and Interstate 95 around 6:15 p.m.
The storms have currently reached the zone from Germantown to Sterling and are on pace to move inside the Beltway by around 6 p.m. and reach I-95 by around 6:15 p.m. The storms may miss or just graze areas south of Interstate 66 in Virginia and Rt. 50 in Maryland, mainly focusing from the District north.
5:15 p.m. — Severe thunderstorm warning for most of D.C.'s western suburbs and the northwest part of the District through 5:45
A fairly solid line of intense storms stretch from near Frederick through Leesburg into northern Fauquier County, with severe thunderstorm warnings flanking the entire line and areas to the east into Arlington and northwest D.C. The line is advancing east at a fast clip of around 35 mph.
When the line passes through, expect heavy rain, frequent lining and very gusty winds. Localized wind gusts could top 60 mph bringing down trees and limbs. These storms do have a history of producing tree damage.
The line should reach the Interstate 95 corridor around 6 or 6:15 p.m.
4:40 p.m. — Storms warnings extended east into Frederick and Leesburg. Line of storms should near Beltway by 5:45 or 6 p.m.
Radar shows a long, continuous line of strong to severe storms from east of Hagerstown to east of Front Royal bearing down on Thurmont, Frederick, Leesburg and Middleburg in the next 30 minutes. Several severe thunderstorms warnings have been issued along this line through between 5 and 5:15 p.m. and will likely be extended eastward.
These storms contain frequent lightning, very heavy rain and may unleash localized bursts of wind to 60 to 70 mph. Some of them tower up to 55,000 feet high.
At their current rate of movement, they should approach the Beltway in a little over an hour.
4:10 p.m. — Broken line of severe storms along Interstate 81
Radar shows a broken line of severe storms nearing or arriving along the Interstate 81 corridor from Hagerstown to just west of Front Royal. Severe thunderstorms warnings have been posted for Hagerstown, Martinsburg, Winchester and Strasburg, mainly for potentially damaging winds.
These storms, which are moving east and northeast between 25 and 50 mph, should reach the Rt. 15 corridor from Frederick to Leesburg by around 5 p.m., and could be closing in on the Beltway and Washington’s northern suburbs between 5:30 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. We’ll keep you posted.
2:45 p.m. — Severe thunderstorm watch issued until 10 p.m.
Given the threat of intense storms, the National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for the Washington-Baltimore region until 10 p.m.
“Clusters of thunderstorms will move across the mountains into the watch area this afternoon, with damaging winds and hail possible in the strongest cells,” the Weather Service writes.
Just before 3 p.m., radar showed storms in eastern West Virginia and western Maryland advancing toward the Virginia line.
Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to two inches in diameter are possible in scattered storms that could form and move into the region, most likely in the 5 to 8 p.m. window.
A severe thunderstorm watch means there is potential for severe storms, but does not guarantee severe weather in your location. You should remain weather-aware. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued, it means dangerous weather is imminent, and you should seek shelter.
Original article from 2 p.m.
A strong cold front is approaching the region, and the very humid air in front of it is primed for storms. Scattered activity was already developing in the mountains to the west early in the afternoon. In the immediate D.C. area, the evening presents the highest chance of storms, with storms moving relatively quickly.
In addition to blinding downpours and copious lightning, some storms may contain damaging wind gusts. A few could deliver hail as large as quarters, as well. The National Weather Service issued a special statement to alert residents of the storm potential.
“A line of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts is expected to sweep east across our region this afternoon into this evening,” it writes. “Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, although large hail and an isolated tornado are also possible.”
With its midday update, the Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center expanded its level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms to cover the District. The storm threat expands from Tennessee to New England and into southern Canada.
Washington is near the southern end of the main storm risk zone and intense storms may be most numerous north of the District. Overall, the chance of storms decreases south of the city, but storms that develop anywhere have the potential to become intense.
At a glance
Timing for main line:
- Interstate 81 (Hagerstown/Winchester/Front Royal): 4 to 6 p.m.
- Route 15 (Frederick/Leesburg/Gainesville): 5 to 7 p.m.
- Interstate 95 (Baltimore/Washington/Fredericksburg): 6 to 8 p.m.
- Route 301 (Crofton/Upper Marlboro/Waldorf): 6:30 to 8:30 p.m.
There could be an isolated shower or storm before the main line of scattered activity arrives. Additional (probably sub-severe) showers or storms are possible overnight, with more rain likely tomorrow.
Storm motion and duration: Moving west to east and lasting 30-60 minutes.
Main threats: Heavy rain, dangerous lightning and localized damaging wind gusts.
Small chance of: Hail. Brief/weak tornado.
Rainfall potential: Highly variable. Up to about an inch in the heaviest storms.
All (or mostly) clear: By 8 to 10 p.m., although a lingering shower is possible after that.
Confidence: Medium. While the air mass is very unstable, coverage of storms is uncertain. Wind shear that helps sustain storms is also on the low end, so storms may be sporadic and/or short-lived.
Discussion
Today’s setup features a volatile atmosphere — one that has become quite unstable, given strong solar heating and winds from the south ushering in a hot and humid air mass at low levels.
From the west, a cold front is approaching, as shown below.
While the front is lagging a bit to our west around prime thunderstorm formation time, a precursor trough of low pressure (orange dotted lines) may help organize a line of thunderstorms locally. Storms around here are often fueled by a prefrontal trough.
Meanwhile, a disturbance in the upper-level jet stream flow — while presently over the Ohio Valley — will begin to influence our region later in the afternoon.
That disturbance helps increase the strength of winds aloft, leading to increased wind shear across New York, New England and into the northern part of the Mid- Atlantic. It also helps spark the storms as it presses into the region.
The most widespread storms are expected to reside essentially from the Mason-Dixon Line and northward, where the Storm Prediction Center has bumped up the severity probability to Level 3 of 5, or enhanced. Farther south into this area, where there is more distance from the low pressure center, the coverage of storms is less certain. This is especially true south of Washington.
Various models, which explicitly simulate thunderstorm cells, suggest that a line of storms will form over the high terrain to our west and then move over the metro region during the late afternoon and evening.
How widespread any severe storms will be, remains a bit fuzzy. The level of storm organization depends critically on the wind shear, and it is the shear that could be a limiting factor today. While it will intensify through the afternoon, it may just barely support a sustained severe wind threat.
It is also possible that severe storms (or at least a subset) will be more of the “pulse” variety, that is, solitary, individual cells that briefly attain severe values, then dissipate. This is especially true of any cells out ahead of a line.
In terms of severe weather types, storms that are more driven by an unstable atmosphere and shear, are capable of producing locally torrential downpours, intense volleys of lightning, downbursts and even small hail.
As a reminder, a downburst is a short-lived but hyper-concentrated and damaging blast of downdraft air. In terms of hail, we expect that these cells would mainly generate anything from mothball- to quarter-size, in localized spots.
Should the storms become more organized and widespread, the wind damage risk may expand as well.
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June 22, 2021 at 05:40AM
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Storms exiting the area after minor damage reported - The Washington Post
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