- Severe thunderstorms will return to the South Friday into Saturday.
- Large hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes are possible.
- This April's tornado count has been much below average so far.
A threat of severe thunderstorms will return to the South as we close out the week, signaling the start of what might be a more active period for severe weather as April comes to a close.
There has been a relative lull in widespread severe weather across much of the U.S. since an April 9 outbreak produced a combined total of 345 reports of damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes in the South.
That should change by Friday when a potent jet-stream disturbance swings into the Southern Plains and spurs the development of a low-pressure system. The area of low pressure will then track eastward across the South through Saturday while tapping into Gulf of Mexico moisture.
Widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms will likely spread across the South Friday into Saturday because of this setup. Some of those storms will turn severe and could produce damaging winds, large hail and at least a few tornadoes.
Here's a closer look at the forecast.
Friday-Friday Night
The severe weather threat will begin Friday afternoon and evening.
Severe storms could ignite along a dry line from central Oklahoma into central Texas and pose a threat of very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. This area of strong to severe storms could then progress toward eastern Texas late Friday.
Another area of severe storms might materialize along a warm front extending from eastern parts of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. Those storms could also pose a risk of damaging winds, large hail and some tornadoes.
Heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding in many of these same areas, especially in the lower Mississippi Valley.
Friday - Friday Night Severe Thunderstorm Forecast
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day.)Saturday
A complex of rain and thunderstorms should be ongoing from parts of the Gulf Coast into the Southeast on Saturday morning. It's possible some of those storms could be severe.
Additional severe storms could fire up in the afternoon hours to the south of a warm front draped across the South.
The overall forecast for severe weather from Saturday morning through the afternoon hours is still uncertain. However, areas shaded red below, generally near and south of Interstate 20, have the greatest chance of seeing strong to severe storms.
We will provide more details for Saturday once the forecast becomes more clear.
Saturday-Saturday Night Severe Thunderstorm Forecast
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day. )A relative lull in severe weather is expected Sunday into Monday. The next more significant round of severe storms could develop in parts of the central and southern U.S. next Tuesday into Wednesday, but it's too early for details.
Slow April Tornado Pace So Far
April's tornado pace has slower than average so far in 2021.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has tallied up nearly three dozen reports of tornadoes in the U.S. through the first half of this month. That's much below the full month average of 194 tornadoes annually over the 20-year period 2000-2019.
Red dots show U.S. tornado reports April 1-15, 2021.
(NOAA)The relatively low tornado report count so far this April comes on the heels of a very active March. There was a preliminary 191 tornado reports in the U.S. last month, according to the SPC.
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April 21, 2021 at 11:35PM
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Severe Thunderstorm Threat Returns to South Friday and Saturday, Including Hail, Possible Tornadoes | The Weather Channel - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com - The Weather Channel
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