Recent peaks near last year's record
Peaks set to climb again into May
Sheffield Solar refines PV_Live
London — UK solar peak generation dropped off significantly April 27 as cloudy conditions replaced the clear skies of last week, but a new solar peak this spring remains a possibility, Sheffield Solar's Jamie Taylor told S&P Global Platts April 28.
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Register NowThe University of Sheffield research group has been pioneering the collection and analysis of UK solar data for over 10 years, working closely with National Grid ESO in more recent years to monitor the sector.
"We've not hit a new record yet this year, but it does usually happen around this time of year," Taylor said, noting a peak of 9.60 GW on April 22, close to the all-time peak of 9.68 GW in April last year.
Having neared 9 GW on April 26, the midday peak was back down below 5 GW April 27, and was forecast by National Grid at just over 3 GW April 28, before climbing back over 6 GW heading into May.
Cool efficiency
The UK's annual peak solar outturn at 12:00 BST tends to happen in spring because ambient temperatures are cooler, Taylor said.
Summer irradiance levels may be higher for longer, but that served to heat up operational panels, affecting the performance of modules.
"In spring you can get similarly high levels of peak irradiance, but you've got lower ambient temperature and higher average wind in general, which has a big cooling effect on modules," he said. This made them more efficient.
Further, while summer solar output across the peak was greater because of a broader irradiance profile, in spring the angle of the sun during the actual peak at noon was "much closer to the optimum angle for panels based on UK panel orientation of 35 degrees from horizontal," Taylor said.
In short, in summer the sun was too high in the sky to be perpendicular to modules at noon, while in spring the sun was lower and close to perpendicular at noon.
Tracking benefits
Sheffield Solar is working with a company on development of a tracking mount for a PV module, trying to quantify the improvement in output that could be expected from a UK tracker versus a static array.
"You can see a 15% to 20% increase in the annual yield if you use a tracker," he said.
Generating significantly more in the morning and early evening allowed tracked assets to capture higher hourly prices compared to the price-gouged midday solar peak when demand dips, he said.
"The sun is pretty much behind your static south-facing module by around 6pm in the summer. Hopefully trackers are back on the menu as far as new deployment is concerned," Taylor said.
Refining the data
Looking ahead, Sheffield Solar was working on further refinements to how it modelled solar yields across the country.
"We're working with National Grid ESO to develop a higher temporal resolution version of PV_Live, giving better usability in very near to realtime for frequency response purposes, and we're also looking at improving our deployment tracking approach. This is probably still the biggest source of error -- just knowing what is installed, and where," he said.
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Overcast conditions put UK solar peak predictions in the shade - S&P Global
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