A large part of Lower Michigan has been placed in a real threat for widespread severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed about the southeast half of Lower Michigan is the “enhanced risk” area of severe thunderstorms. I’ll break it down for you. Surrounding the enhanced risk area is a large area of a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.
Severe storm forecast for Wednesday afternoon and evening, June 10, 2020
The Storm Prediction Center is the National Weather Service’s headquarters for severe weather forecasting. They forecast where severe weather is possible in the next several days. They believe the highest risk of severe thunderstorms stretches from Bay City, Midland, Saginaw, Mount Pleasant, Big Rapids and Grand Rapids eastward into all of southeast Lower Michigan and the Thumb. A slight risk, which is a lower risk than the enhanced risk area, surrounds the enhanced area to the width of about two counties.
A better way to look at the chance of severe weather is using the percent chance forecast issued by SPC.
They believe there is enough atmospheric shear of a certain type that a few tornadoes could develop.
Chance for a tornado within 25 miles of any point for Wednesday afternoon and evening, June 10, 2020
The same enhanced risk area has a five percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point. This higher tornado risk area is just east of Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo as of the 3:00 p.m. forecast today, but could always be shifted slightly in later forecasts. All of the large cities of southeast and eastern Lower Michigan are in the higher tornado risk area. While the five percent area is not considered a high risk, It is high enough risk to legitimately expect a tornado or two in southeast Lower Michigan.
If the storms do not produce a tornado or two, it’s because of one factor. While we have sufficient wind shear in the atmosphere, it’s what we call speed shear and not directional shear. Directional shear is when the wind direction changes significantly with height. A southeast surface wind veers to a south wind at 5,000 feet to a west wind at 10,000 feet or higher. That rotating of wind direction increases tornado chances. We have speed shear tomorrow, where the wind speed increases significantly with height. It’s a condition that can produce a tornado, but fortunately not a sure-bet.
The more widespread concern will be segments of severe wind gusts. Remember, a wind gust is ranked severe when it gusts over 58 mph.
Severe wind gust forecast for Wednesday afternoon and evening, June 10, 2020 (SPC)
There is a large area placed in the 30 percent chance of a severe wind gust within 25 miles. Usually I find this means there will be a few lines of storms bringing numerous wind gust reports.
SPC also hints at possibly increasing the chance of large hail in the forecast. Severe hail is defined as one inch diameter or larger hail.
Severe hail forecast chance for Wednesday, June 10, 2020.
The current forecast puts a large part of Lower Michigan in the 15 percent chance of severe hail within 25 miles of a given point. Wednesday afternoon and evening is a good time to have your nice car in a garage or covered parking ramp.
My thoughts- We actually have an authentic amount of instability at the time thunderstorms will be rolling through. So often in Michigan the strong storms from out west hit cooler, more stable air in Michigan and fall apart. Tomorrow afternoon and evening will have the warm, moist, light air over eastern Michigan. This surrounding light air allows thunderstorms to explode in height. It’s actually a severe weather potential to start planning for now. I’d probably stay away from outdoor activities that are a long distance from safe shelter tomorrow afternoon and evening. Boating, hiking and camping would be tops on my list to probably reschedule.
I anticipate a fairly solid line of thunderstorms developing along US 127 between 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. tomorrow, and then intensifying eastward across southeast Lower and the Thumb. The line of storms will be out of Lower Michigan between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m. tomorrow.
That timeframe is the classic timeframe for severe storms. Watch for more updates over the next 24 hours, posted here.
Related severe weather information:
Winds, Great Lakes waves ramp up with Cristobal’s arrival
Gale Warnings issued for Lake Michigan, Saginaw Bay, Lake Superior ahead of storm
"severe" - Google News
June 10, 2020 at 02:47AM
https://ift.tt/2AXDKmM
Severe weather outbreak, including possible tornado, shaping up for majority of Lower Michigan - MLive.com
"severe" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2OrY17E
Shoes Man Tutorial
Pos News Update
Meme Update
Korean Entertainment News
Japan News Update
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Severe weather outbreak, including possible tornado, shaping up for majority of Lower Michigan - MLive.com"
Post a Comment