The switch from winter to spring can lead to highly irritable, complex weather patterns in March. This typically means that severe weather will increase both in geography and frequency, especially later in the month.
At the start of March, the greatest opportunity for any severe weather hazard within 25 miles would be from parts of the Ark-La-Tex region to much of Mississippi and western and north-central Alabama. An expansion occurs as mid-month approaches, with eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas to near or just east of the western Alabama-Georgia border climatologically favored. Texas to eastern Kansas and as far east as the Carolinas, or as far south as the Gulf Coast, also enter a more favorable severe weather environment during this time.
By the time astronomical spring arrives and passes, the geographical severe weather risk undergoes an accelerated expansion. Severe weather climatology favors cities such as Oklahoma City to Tulsa, Okla., the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, to Little Rock, Ark., Monroe and Shreveport, La., Memphis, Tenn., and Jackson, Miss., to Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Huntsville, Ala., by March 18. Cape Girardeau, Mo., and Nashville, Tenn., plus Lafayette and Baton Rouge, La., join in the higher severe weather probabilities in a 25-mile radius by March 25. This also comes with increasing frequency of severe weather events as well.
Just before flipping the calendar to April, the probability of severe weather increases in frequency and geography. With a higher sun angle, longer days, and increasing Gulf of Mexico moisture, a corridor from eastern Kansas to Texas through the Deep South is favored most for severe weather. That said, much of Missouri to Tennessee, western South Carolina, and much of Georgia will need to practice their severe weather preparedness, too.
What does severe weather within 25 miles mean? Well, the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm the following way:
• A tornado, it’s as simple as that!
• Damaging wind gusts that exceed 58 mph.
• Hail larger than an inch in diameter, or the size of a quarter or larger.
Climatologically-speaking, Oklahoma City to Tulsa, Okla., and the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, as well as Jackson, Miss., to near Birmingham and Huntsville, Ala., and Chattanooga, Tenn., have a higher ceiling of severe weather events during March, especially late in the month. For example, Oklahoma City saw a big increase in March severe weather or tornado outbreaks since 2010 compared to before then. An event occurred nearly every year from 2010 to 2015, typically falling between March 18 and 31. In 2022, this pattern of late March severe weather events continued on March 21.
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Story Image: Supercell thunderstorms are seen on radar west and north of Oklahoma City on Feburary 10, 2009. (Courtesy of NWS Norman, Okla. - Enhanced Weather Page)
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March 21, 2023 at 05:32PM
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Severe Weather Climatology - WeatherBug
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