There is a strong possibility of a clump of severe thunderstorms coming out of the northern Plains and rolling across a part of Michigan Monday.
The Storm Prediction Center, NOAA’s office for severe thunderstorm and tornado forecasting, has painted an area of severe weather for Monday. This area of possible severe thunderstorms includes about the southwest quarter of Lower Michigan.
Here is the preliminary severe weather forecast, encompassing 8 a.m. Monday, June 13 to 8 a.m. Tuesday, June 14. This forecast was issued Sunday morning.
The first forecast image below is a forecast for severe wind gusts in a thunderstorm. The black hatched area is where significant severe wind gusts are possible. The black hatched area could have a wind gust of 75 mph or faster. The significant wind gust area includes Benton Harbor, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek and Jackson.
Severe wind gust forecast for Monday, June 13. The black hatched area has a chance of significant severe wind gusts over 75 mph. (source: Storm Prediction Center)
The shape of the severe wind gust forecast shows you exactly the storm scenario expected. A clump of thunderstorms is expected to develop sometime Monday afternoon in southern Wisconsin or northern Illinois, and then zip southeast into southern Michigan, northern Indiana and northern Ohio.
There is a chance of a tornado in that same clump of thunderstorms. The chance of a tornado is painted across about the southern third of Lower Michigan, with the highest chance also in that same southwest corner of Lower Michigan.
Tornado forecast for Monday, June 13 shows a five percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point.
Anytime we have enough wind shear for a tornado, we have the situation for isolated large hail. The same area is painted for the chance of large hail. We do not yet have the forecast for significantly large hail over two inches in diameter.
Large hail forecast for Monday, June 13
The deal is this: Where will the clump of severe thunderstorms initially form Monday afternoon? If the storms form in central Wisconsin, the track of storms will bring it across the heart of southern Lower Michigan. If the storms form in northern Illinois, the clump of storms may just creep into far southwest Lower Michigan.
At this time, Sunday morning, the uncertainty is where the initial storms will form. We will have a better feel for the location of initial storms with Monday morning’s data.
Here is a radar forecast from one of the best severe weather forecasting models. This model actually is forecasting the more northern initiation of storms. As a result it brings a line of severe storms across much of southern Lower Michigan.
Radar forecast from NOAA's FV3 model for 8 a.m. Monday, June 13 to 11 p.m. Monday, June 13.
One forecasting item that points toward severe storms in southern Michigan is the timing of the storms. Timing of severe storms is so crucial in Michigan because the severe storms need the most instability to survive in Michigan. Instability is maximized in the heat of the late afternoon and early evening. The forecast timing of storms rolling across southern Michigan from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. Monday says the storms will have that instability to build strength.
So this is just a “day-before heads-up” that a quick moving line of severe thunderstorms is possible Monday afternoon and evening. Be ready to take cover inside your house or a sturdy building for an hour or so sometime in the second half of Monday.
Watch here for an update later today, and a more detailed location, timing and severity forecast Monday morning. Bookmark this page for all severe weather updates from us here at MLive.
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June 12, 2022 at 10:59PM
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Atmosphere right for significant severe weather burst; Radar forecast shows possible track - MLive.com
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