This is a weekly series examining Florida’s coronavirus data. Send questions or suggestions to ltaylor@tampabay.com.
Florida may have finally hit its coronavirus death peak. As the numbers (hopefully) begin to drop, we can start to get a sense of how the state’s death toll will stack up in the end. But it isn’t pretty.
On Aug. 5, the state reported a weekly average of 185 new deaths per day. That 7-day average is Florida’s highest so far and three times what it was during an earlier crest in May.
The weekly average of deaths from COVID-19 reported in Florida had been growing steadily since mid-June — nearly two months ago.
Not until this past week did weekly deaths begin to ebb. Florida has now gone six days without exceeding its Aug. 5 peak. During the prior month, Florida didn’t go more than two days without setting a new record in average weekly deaths.
It makes sense that the death count would begin to recede now or soon. COVID-19 deaths are lagging indicators of the pandemic’s spread. Officials report deaths between a few days and two weeks after they occur. Of course, patients often contracted the virus long before dying.
Last week, a timelier indicator showed positive signs: fewer and fewer people primarily diagnosed with the disease are hospitalized right now. Since last week, the trend of fewer current COVID-19 hospitalizations has continued. From the week around July 22 to the week ending Tuesday, the number dropped about 23 percent, an average of about 7,200 people in the hospital at once over the course of a given week.
Still, the height of Florida’s peak means many more people will die before the number comes all the way down. The state’s peak in deaths comes much later than most of the hardest-hit states.
I noted last week that Florida ranks 17th among states in total COVID-19 deaths per capita. But that underestimates the relative death toll, because some of the states higher on the list have already seen new death numbers drop to nearly zero. Unless they encounter another spike, these states likely won’t see many more people die.
Florida, however, is closer to being halfway done than it is to being at the end.
So it’s helpful to look at how many people had died by the time of the peaks in other states and compare those numbers to Florida’s.
This way to count is more of a projection — we are assuming Florida’s deaths in the future will follow similar patterns seen in other states. That’s not far-fetched. And using the rolling weekly averages everywhere helps smooth out any outliers in judging when the true peak occurred.
Florida jumps from the 17th worst state when counting the total number of deaths since the pandemic through Monday, to the 8th when counting only deaths reported by the time of the peak.
The peaks come from New York Times data on deaths in every state, and excludes anomalies, such as single-day jumps after changes in reporting policies.
States like Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Delaware have had more deaths per capita than Florida overall, but they peaked much earlier and are now much further along the curve. Judging at the time of their peaks, Florida’s toll has been relatively worse.
It’s certainly possible that the number of new deaths each day will drop faster in Florida than it did in other states after their peaks. But it won’t immediately fall to zero. Florida’s overall loss — like that of Mississippi, Arizona, Georgia and other states where deaths haven’t started to decline — will look relatively greater over time.
And if Florida sets a new peak in the future, it would only mean the death toll climbs even higher while putting off a long-awaited decline.
• • •
HOW CORONAVIRUS IS SPREADING IN FLORIDA: Find the latest numbers for your county, city or zip code.
LATEST ON CORONAVIRUS: Six things we’ve learned about the coronavirus since March.
MASK UPDATE: Find out where you have to wear a mask in Tampa Bay
GET THE DAYSTARTER MORNING UPDATE: Sign up to receive the most up-to-date information.
THE CORONAVIRUS SCRAPBOOK: We collected your stories, pictures, songs, recipes, journals and more to show what life has been like during the pandemic.
HAVE A TIP?: Send us confidential news tips
We’re working hard to bring you the latest news on the coronavirus in Florida. This effort takes a lot of resources to gather and update. If you haven’t already subscribed,please consider buying a print or digital subscription.
"peak" - Google News
August 12, 2020 at 07:08AM
https://ift.tt/33NLpAl
Florida coronavirus deaths may have passed peak, per capita rate compares poorly - Tampa Bay Times
"peak" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2KZvTqs
https://ift.tt/2Ywz40B
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Florida coronavirus deaths may have passed peak, per capita rate compares poorly - Tampa Bay Times"
Post a Comment