A cold front will set off a line of scattered thunderstorms Tuesday evening and overnight. The energy from the current hot and humid air will be enough to take a few of these thunderstorms to severe levels.
First off, here’s a reminder on the official definition of a severe thunderstorm. A thunderstorm becomes severe when it produces a 58 mph wind gust or faster, one inch diameter hail or a tornado.
The severe weather forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center, NOAA’s office dedicated to severe weather forecasting, have outlined an area across Michigan for possible severe weather. The forecasts you are about to see were produced at 2 a.m. this morning and are in effect from 8 a.m. today to 8 a.m. Wednesday.
The cold front will be slipping southeast across Lower Michigan this evening and tonight. The yellow shaded area across Lower Michigan is where a few thunderstorms could become severe tonight.
Overall severe weather forecast area for 8 a.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Wednesday.
The Storm Prediction Center mentions the higher tornado threat across northern Illinois, where they have placed a 5% chance of a tornado. Across part of Lower Michigan there is still a very slight chance of a tornado.
Percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point. Forecast valid from 8 a.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Wednesday.
With nighttime severe thunderstorms, the main threat is a very quick, isolated severe wind gust. The forecast below depicts that chance of quick 60 mph wind gusts. Remember- barring an all-out severe weather outbreak, which is not expected, these severe wind gusts only last a few minutes and hit small areas.
Forecast for the possibility of a severe wind gust in a thunderstorm. Forecast valid from 8 a.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Wednesday.
Large hail does not have the same threat level as an isolated wind gust here in Michigan. High chances of large hail are in the southern Plains.
Forecast of possibility of large hail. Black hatched area has the chance of two inch diameter hail.
The timing of a line of thunderstorms also says something about its chance to be severe. Usually thunderstorms are strongest in the heat of the day, from 3 p.m. to 8 p.m. Today’s thunderstorms will likely hold off until late evening before developing, and be strongest overnight. Since we will warm to a humid 90 degrees across southern and eastern Lower Michigan, there will still be enough heat overnight to help a thunderstorm become severe.
Here is the radar forecast from a model I find usually does best in this situation and 12 hours to 18 hours in the future. Notice it does indicate a few clumps of potent thunderstorms, but not until after midnight tonight.
Radar forecast from 6 p.m. Tuesday, May 31 to 10 a.m. Wednesday, June 1.
So we don’t have to worry about severe thunderstorms this morning into early evening. We should just keep in mind that a quick, potent thunderstorm may develop tonight.
The Storm Prediction Center will be giving us an updated forecast toward lunchtime, and I’ll give you that update. Click here to find the update.
"severe" - Google News
May 31, 2022 at 07:27PM
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A few severe thunderstorms possible with late cold front: timing, location - MLive.com
"severe" - Google News
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