The energetic trough moving from the West Coast into the Plains will spark the chance for a few severe storms over the weekend.
A surface cold front will provide the lifting mechanism needed for severe storms. As the front runs in to humid air with temperatures in the 80s, there will be plenty of available energy for isolated to scattered severe storms to develop.
As of now, the risk is marginal (Level 1 out of 5) for the central Plains on Saturday. This could be upgraded if confidence increases in a more widespread severe threat. Gusty winds and large hail will be the biggest threats Saturday, which includes severe storms possible through the overnight hours.
While some heavy rain and occasional gusty storms are possible early in the day, storms won’t start to get going until the evening. Storms will intensify along and north of the warm front in Missouri as it lifts through. Individual storms ahead of the cold front in Kansas will also be possible, although models are favoring isolated storms right now.
Rain and storms will continue to lift north along the warm front into the overnight hours.
There is confidence in severe weather ingredients remaining in place for severe storms Sunday as well. This is from the same system, mainly for storms along the cold front as it moves through.
Model data is not well defined through this timeframe, but shows a line of thunderstorms through the risk area Sunday evening. All types of severe storms are possible Sunday, including the risk for tornadoes. As data becomes more available the timing and location could shift and we’ll keep you updated on WeatherNation of any changes with this developing story.
You can catch the Central Regional Forecast at :30 past the hour, every hour for these details along with the rest of the top weather headlines.
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October 21, 2021 at 11:49PM
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Weekend Severe Chances for the Plains - WeatherNation
"severe" - Google News
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