• Russia is two months into its renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine, but it's taking heavy losses.
  • New US intel shows Moscow has suffered over 13,000 casualties and lost hundreds of combat vehicles. 
  • The bleak assessment comes amid some uncertainty over future US military support for Ukraine. 

Russia has suffered very heavy casualties during its two-month-long offensive in eastern Ukraine, and hasn't made any strategic territorial gains to show for its losses, according to newly downgraded US intelligence.

Washington first made note of the renewed offensive in mid-October. The White House now assesses that since then, Russia has seen over 13,000 soldiers killed or wounded in battle and has lost more than 220 combat vehicles along the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement shared with Business Insider on Tuesday.

This new tally follows a recent casualty estimate from Britain's defense ministry, which said Moscow has likely seen between 220,000 and 280,000 personnel wounded and around 70,000 more killed since the full-scale war began in February 2022. This figure — which, at its upper boundary, could total a staggering 350,000 casualties for Russian forces.

How aware Russia is of the potential severity of these losses is questionable, the UK said.

"Even amongst Russian officials there is likely a low level of understanding about total casualty figures because of a long-established culture of dishonest reporting within the military," Britain's defense ministry wrote in an intelligence update last week.

Ukrainian soldiers fire artillery at their fighting position in the direction of Avdiivka of Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on November 28, 2023. Ukrainian
Ukrainian soldiers fire artillery at their fighting position in the direction of Avdiivka of Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on November 28, 2023. Ukrainian
Photo by Ozge Elif Kizil/Anadolu via Getty Images

The renewed offensive — which is operating along multiple axes in the east — has produced "no strategic gains" and comes at a "severe cost" for Russia, Watson said.

Some of the most intense fighting over the past couple of months has been in and around the city of Avdiivka, where Russia appears to be attempting to encircle the defending Ukrainian forces.

Moscow has sent forward a tremendous amount of combat power, but the Ukrainians have so far been able to repel the enemy's advances — destroying vehicles and bloodying personnel.

Despite the sharp increase in Russia's military losses over the past few weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin is still determined to continue the assault with the ultimate goal of conquering Ukraine, Watson said. Because of this, she said, it's critical that the US maintains its high volume of military support for Kyiv.

The US is the largest provider of security assistance to Ukraine, providing over $44 billion in weaponry and other aid since February 2022, but future support is now at a critical juncture. The Biden administration has repeatedly urged Congress to approve supplemental funding so it can continue to outfit Kyiv with military aid into 2024. This effort, however, has been met by stiff resistance by Republican lawmakers.

In a desperate attempt to secure more funding, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Washington on Tuesday to plead his country's case and meet with President Joe Biden. The Kremlin said it was monitoring the outcome of Tuesday's events in Washington, but downplayed any impact that it may have on the war, according to Russian state media.

During the meeting between the two heads of state, Biden said he had just signed a $200 million drawdown in security assistance for Ukraine, adding that it'll be coming "quickly." The funding available is running low though.

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss", Ukrainian soldiers pass by a volunteer bus burning after a Russian drone hit it near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023.
In this photo provided by the Ukrainian 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss", Ukrainian soldiers pass by a volunteer bus burning after a Russian drone hit it near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023.
Shandyba Mykyta, Ukrainian 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" via AP

Moscow "seems to believe that a military deadlock through the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine and ultimately give Russia the advantage despite Russian losses and persistent shortages of trained personnel, munitions, and equipment," Watson said, adding that Putin is "clearly" watching what Congress does.

Indeed, while the Russians have not managed to seize significant portions of Ukrainian territory during their renewed assault, the same has been true for Kyiv's military. The sprawling front line, which stretches for hundreds of miles, has remained relatively static for months. And Moscow appears likely to spend another winter relentlessly targeting Kyiv's civil infrastructure with missiles and drones.

Without a steady flow of security assistance from the US, war experts are say, Ukraine could be dealt a devastating blow by a key partner.

"The blood, bodies, and souls of millions of innocent Ukrainian rest on a small number of members Congress who might not have an understanding of the magnitude of their political leverage, using the fate of a democratic nation," Dan Rice, the President of American University Kyiv and a longtime advocate for sending weaponry, such as cluster munitions, to Ukraine, told Business Insider.

Every day that more funding is delayed "costs lives, and risks the collapse of a nation," he said. "And then it will be irreversible."