- An expansive storm will have impacts across the country during the New Year's weekend.
- A threat of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, is in play in the South.
- An expansive area of snow is expected from the Rockies to the Plains, Midwest and interior Northeast.
A New Year's storm may trigger more severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in parts of the South and spread a wintry mess of snow and ice from the Rockies and Plains to parts of the Midwest and Northeast.
Rounds of snow will blanket parts of the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Northeast, along with soaking rain and thunderstorms in parts of the South the first half of this week.
But a potentially more volatile setup may come into play around the New Year's holiday weekend.
First up, record warmth for this time of year will be in place over much of the South this week. An energetic U-shaped jet stream trough will swing over that warm, humid air, providing the wind shear and instability needed for severe thunderstorms.
And moisture flowing over colder air on the storm's northern flank will wring out snow and some ice.
Given the storm is several days away, there are still many important details that haven't come into focus just yet. Check back frequently for important forecast updates in the days ahead.
For now, here's the general picture of this active New Year's holiday.
Severe Weather Outlook
Rain and thunderstorms could increase Friday night from parts of Texas to the Ohio Valley.
By Saturday (New Year's Day), a more substantial severe weather threat might develop in the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys that may last into Saturday night.
For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the area below from northern Louisiana to southern Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, and northern Alabama as the area with the highest chance of at least some severe thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.
Damaging thunderstorm winds, hail and tornadoes are possible in these areas.
Saturday's Severe Weather Outlook
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms three or more days away, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This severe threat area may expand in the coming days as the forecast becomes clearer.)Severe thunderstorms might continue in parts of the Southeast Sunday, but computer forecast models are not yet in sync on exactly where Sunday's threat will be.
There is also a threat of heavy rain and at least local flash flooding from the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians, especially if this system moves slower Sunday, as some computer models suggest is possible.
As we saw twice earlier in December, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can occur any time of year when the ingredients line up.
If you're in the severe weather threat areas, have multiple ways of receiving National Weather Service severe thunderstorm, tornado and flash flood watches and warnings. This includes smartphone apps, such as The Weather Channel app, and NOAA weather radio. Know where to go if a tornado warning is issued for your area, whether that's the basement of your home or a more substantial storm shelter if you live in a mobile home.
Snow, Ice Outlook
By Friday night, snow and possibly some sleet and freezing rain is expected to spread from the Rockies into parts of the central and northern Plains.
Saturday (New Year's Day), snow, possibly heavy, may extend from the Missouri Valley to the western Great Lakes. A wintry mess of snow, sleet and ice might also spread from parts of western, central and upstate New York into western and northern New England.
Saturday's Forecast
(While it is too soon to pinpoint precisely who will see what precipitation type, the green shadings depict where rain is expected. Areas that are shaded blue are expected to see snow. Purple-shaded locations may see either rain or snow. Areas in pink are expected to see sleet or freezing rain (ice).)The forecast beyond that is even trickier.
Saturday night, enough cold air may arrive on the west side of the storm to turn rain into some wet snow in parts of Oklahoma, North Texas and Arkansas, including some of the same areas that basked in record warmth earlier this week.
Sunday, some snow may linger in parts of northern New England and upstate New York. Whether – and how much – rain changes to wet snow in the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians Sunday and Sunday night remains uncertain.
Sunday's Forecast
(While it is too soon to pinpoint precisely who will see what precipitation type, the green shadings depict where rain is expected. Areas that are shaded blue are expected to see snow. Purple-shaded locations may see either rain or snow. Areas in pink are expected to see sleet or freezing rain (ice).)So prepare for wintry travel over the New Year's holiday weekend.
Keep in mind temperatures will plunge sharply this weekend behind the system's cold front. That may lead to freezing or refreezing of roads that may have been either only wet or slushy during the day.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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December 28, 2021 at 02:34AM
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