Bad timing: La Niña could return for peak hurricane season - WJXT News4JAX

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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A new La Niña watch was issued Thursday that could trigger another spike in hurricane numbers over the next few months.

Look at last year’s hyperactive hurricane season. After August, when La Niña kicked into full cycle, 17 storms developed, adding to the season’s record-breaking 30 named storms.

La Niña can increase Atlantic hurricane activity by weakening the wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Basin, enabling more storms.

Unfortunately, La Niña is staging a comeback during the busiest part of hurricane season ahead.

Current, neutral La Niña conditions in the Pacific were predicted for the summer months in May, but now NOAA forecasters say cooler water will likely emerge between September and November. The likelihood of it developing and lasting through the winter is 55%.

Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (difference from average) in the Pacific for 2020-21 (purple line) and all other years starting from first-year La Niña winters since 1950.

La Niña, and the warm water counterpart called El Niño, are key factors in seasonal hurricane forecasts.

Colorado State Hurricane forecasters say this plays a part in increasing storm numbers for the remaining 2021 season from 18 to 20 named storms, along with an extra hurricane bringing the total to nine.

CSU Forecast update on July 9, 2021 increased numbers of storms from 18 to 20 including an extra hurricane.

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Bad timing: La Niña could return for peak hurricane season - WJXT News4JAX
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