Prior to 2007, severe weather warnings were issued on a county by county basis. More recently, the warning system has operated on storm based polygons, which eliminate the locations in a county where a threat is not imminent. Now, researchers are working on further upgrades to the warning system.
"We're not just focusing on how did this warning verify, but did the warning provide the right information that people needed to make the right decisions," said Kodi Berry, who is the FACETs Program Lead for NOAA's National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL).
FACETs, which stands for "Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats" is one of the many projects underway at NSSL. One of the goals of the FACETs program is to find a way to enhance the current weather warning system, by providing useful information in a more individualized way.
"Nursing home or hospitals, they need a lot of extra lead time and we're hoping that by the research that we're doing, we would get to a point where we can provide them information that would allow them to take action earlier," said Berry.
One of the ways the FACETs model can provide advanced lead time is by issuing warning information based on the probability of a specific hazard, like a tornado, occurring at a single point within the warning polygon.
"Well my 30% chance of getting hit by this tornado, that's pretty small.. You know what, I'm going to keep, you know just monitoring things and doing my own stuff. I'm not going to go to the basement. 60%, 70%, yeah, I think I want to take cover. I mean, we still want people to act. But, now we're giving them small, little bit more detailed information, to let them know what is the reach chance of a threat," said James Auten, Senior Meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Lincoln, Illinois.
The FACETs project focuses on more than just the probability of impacts from a tornado. Hazards from hail, damaging wind, and even lightning are being tested as part of the program.
"Lightning can occur outside of the thunderstorm, yet it was doing that, it was producing this little polygon. You could be able to tell an emergency manager, hey you got an outdoor event here, your lightning is beginning to increase," said Auten.
Researches say that one of the challenges behind the project is relating mathematical values and probability to people in a way that helps them better understand the risk, without adding to confusion.
"I think the public will, I think they are going to like this, as long as we can communicate correctly. Especially since is includes everything: tornadoes, wind, hail, flooding. They want something different," said Auten.
Research continues at the NSSL and each year meteorologists from the National Weather Service, broadcast media, and other core partners gather in Normal, Oklahoma to simulate how upgrades, like those underway in the FACETs project would be used in the real world.
For more information on the FACETs project and other severe weather research, visit the National Severe Storms Laboratory website.
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Project Tornado: Research underway to enhance future severe weather warnings - HOI ABC
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