Several reports of trees and wires down have come in from near Frederick.
3:40 p.m. update — Storms firing locally, and severe storm near Frederick
A severe thunderstorm warning is up for Frederick County until 4:15 p.m. Wind gusts of 60 mph are possible.
Additionally, storms have begun to fire up locally, in the Potomac, Md., area and to the east of Sterling. Given the high heat and humidity, these storms could become intense as well.
Original post below
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the region. It runs until 8 p.m. Storms developing over the mountains to the west roll east through the area this afternoon into evening.
While the environment supports a pulse-type storm event, where storms go up and then fall apart just as quick, strong instability will aid the potential for powerful downdrafts as high as 60 mph or so. Wind damage is possible in the strongest activity.
For most spots, the main risks will be frequent lightning plus heavy and potentially flooding rain. Given the hit-or-miss nature, some locations may not see much.
Timing for main line:
- Interstate 81 (Hagerstown/Winchester/Front Royal): 2-4 p.m.
- Route 15 (Frederick/Leesburg/Gainesville): 3-5 p.m.
- Interstate 95 (Baltimore/Washington/Fredericksburg): 4-6 p.m.
- Route 301 (Crofton/Upper Marlboro/Waldorf): 5-7 p.m.
A few storms could develop before the main broken line passes through.
Storm motion and duration: Moving west to east and lasting 1 hour or so.
Main threats: Heavy rain, lightning, localized damaging wind gusts.
Small chance of: Hail.
Rainfall potential: Highly variable. Up to an inch or two in the heaviest storms. Many spots see little rain.
All clear: By 8-10 p.m.
Confidence: Medium-High. Coverage of storms is uncertain, but scattered activity is likely.
Discussion
The thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening continues the general trend of the past week. On most days we have seen a very unstable (hot and humid) air mass, and weak winds aloft. Given those weak steering winds, storms are presently erupting over the mountains and drifting very slowly toward the east-northeast.
Without strong winds aloft (and therefore very weak wind shear), we do not expect storms to organize into a long-lived and widespread line, nor supercells. But the intensely unstable atmosphere should make up for the lack of shear, causing some cells to pulse — that is, briefly reach severe limits over localized areas, before dissipating.
When the heavy rain cores of these cells collapse, microbursts can develop and create damaging gusts near or past 60 mph in some locations. Additionally, torrential downpours and vigorous lightning are a good bet with any of these storms. There is also the chance of localized flash flooding, given very slow movement of storm cells.
We expect the mode to be largely hit-or-miss through the later afternoon and evening, with activity waning as the sun goes down. Thunderstorm downdrafts may merge together in spots (creating larger pools of chilled air) that in turn may organize small cells into larger, more persistent clusters.
"severe" - Google News
August 14, 2021 at 02:41AM
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Updates: Strong to severe storms entering the D.C. region, pushing east into early evening - The Washington Post
"severe" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2OrY17E
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