Updated 8 a.m.
A cold front pushes into Minnesota later Saturday with plenty of moist air out ahead of it. That’s the recipe for thunderstorms. Many could become severe into Saturday night.
There is already a severe thunderstorm watch in effect until noon in portions of Minnesota:
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center shows an enhanced risk of severe weather through Saturday night for a wide swath of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area, plus portions of west-central and northern Wisconsin.
Here’s a discussion of our severe weather prospects, from the Twin Cities NWS office:
Saturday and Saturday night severe weather outlook
National Weather Service
Enhanced risk means that numerous severe thunderstorms are possible:
Severe weather risk categories
NWS Storm Prediction Center
Stay weather-aware Saturday.
You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Big picture
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Saturday afternoon through noon Sunday:
HRRR simulated radar Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com
NOAA’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows a similar rain pattern:
NAM model simulated radar Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com
Thunderstorms will occur in some areas that look dry in the loops, but the general rain pattern is illustrated.
Warm and steamy
Saturday will be warm and steamy in the southern half of Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin, with highs in the 80s:
Saturday forecast highs
National Weather Service
Northern Minnesota will have highs in the 70s.
Saturday dew points will be in the 70s in roughly the southern half of Minnesota and western Wisconsin:
Saturday 1 p.m. forecast dew points
National Weather Service
This Updraft blog will be updated around 10 a.m. Saturday with a look at Sunday and the week ahead.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.
You make MPR News possible. Individual donations are behind the clarity in coverage from our reporters across the state, stories that connect us, and conversations that provide perspectives. Help ensure MPR remains a resource that brings Minnesotans together.
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