MADISON, Wis. (WMTV) - Tuesday is a FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY due to the potential of dangerous heat and strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening.
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Tuesday afternoon will be hot and humid. Highs will be near 90 degrees. With dew point temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, it is going to feel oppressive outside from a humidity standpoint. The humidity will add 5 to 10 degrees to the actual air temperature, so max heat indices Tuesday afternoon will range from 95 to 100 degrees. Make sure to limit your time outside Tuesday afternoon. If you must be outside, make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade and A/C from time to time. Places well north of Madison towards central Wisconsin may not be quite as hot. Rain and thunderstorms have been impacting central Wisconsin Tuesday morning. The clouds and rain will likely keep temperatures down for Adams, Green Lake, Juneau, and Marquette County.
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With all the heat and humidity around, there will be the potential for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon evening. However, this is the hardest part of the forecast because none of the forecast models are handling this weather pattern well. There are also a couple of factors that could limit thunderstorm development: lack of upper level forcing and a cap in the atmosphere. However, there are two areas we are watching for thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. The storms moving through central Wisconsin could throw an outflow boundary our way, and storms could fire up along this boundary Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is also a line of storms developing across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa that could impact the area later this afternoon and pose a threat of severe weather.
There is a SLIGHT threat of severe weather for Madison and points north towards central Wisconsin. A SLIGHT threat is 2 out of 5 on the severe scale, so this is a lower end threat of severe weather. Our southern counties along the WI-IL state line are under a MARGINAL threat of severe weather, which is the lowest severe weather threat level. The greatest storm and severe weather threat will likely develop across the northern half of the area.
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If strong to severe storms develop, the main threat will be damaging wind gusts. Small hail, torrential rain and lightning will be secondary threats. The tornado threat is low, but not zero.
Tuesday night will be warm and muggy. Lows will be near 70 degrees. There will be the potential for more rain showers and storms to develop overnight. If storms move through Tuesday afternoon/evening, then strong to severe storms will be unlikely. The thunderstorm potential Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will depend on what happens Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Wednesday will be another hot and humid day. Highs on will be near 90 degrees. Once again, heat indices could reach the mid to upper 90s. There will also be a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms with a cold front moving through the area.
With a cold front stalling out just south of the area, Thursday probably will not be as hot or humid. Highs will still be in the lower to mid 80s, which is still above average for this time of year. There will also be a chance of rain showers and storms on Thursday.
The very warm and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the workweek and this weekend. Highs Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 80s. The on and off rain shower and thunderstorm chances will continue as well. A cold front looks like it will eventually pass through the area late this weekend or early next week. This front will bring an end to the heat, humidity and daily rain and storm chances.
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ALERT DAY - Dangerous heat and severe storms possible Tuesday - WMTV - NBC15
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