Praedictix Briefing: Friday, July 17th, 2020
- Severe weather is expected late today into tonight across portions of the upper Midwest, with a MODERATE risk of severe weather (severe threat level 4 of 5) in place in the Dakotas and western Minnesota. This Moderate Risk area includes Fargo, Jamestown, and Wahpeton (ND) as well as Moorhead (MN).
- The highest risk as a line of strong to severe storms races eastward into the overnight hours will be damaging winds, with some hurricane-force wind gusts (74+ mph) possible. However, large hail and a couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out, especially in the first few hours after storms form.
Moderate Severe Threat Today. As an area of low pressure moves across portions of the Northern Plains later today, strong storms are expected to blossom during the late afternoon hours across portions of the Dakotas, forming into a line and racing eastward into the overnight hours. While early storms may contain large hail and a tornado or two, damaging winds will become the predominant severe threat as the line moves into the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. Due to the heightened damaging wind threat, a Moderate Risk of severe weather (severe threat level 4 of 5) is in place in southeastern North Dakota, far northeast South Dakota, and far western Minnesota. This Moderate Risk area includes Fargo, Jamestown, and Wahpeton (ND) as well as Moorhead (MN). An Enhanced Risk (severe threat level 3 of 5) surrounds that Moderate Risk area and includes St. Cloud (MN), Bismarck and Grand Forks (ND), and Aberdeen and Watertown (SD).
Possible Storm Timing. Storms will start to pop across portions of the Dakotas late this afternoon into the evening hours, quickly forming into a line of storms as they move their way eastward as we head into the overnight hours. These storms will start to lose their strength as they reach the mid-Mississippi Valley late in the overnight hours.
Damaging Winds The Main Threat. As initial storms form into a line and race eastward through the evening and overnight hours, damaging winds will become the predominant severe threat in the upper Midwest tonight. The greatest potential of severe wind gusts (58+ mph) is across the Moderate Risk area, where there is a 45% potential of a damaging wind report within 25 miles of a point. However, you can also see a “significant” risk area (designated by the black dashed area) covering the entirety of both the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas as well as a little farther west into the Dakotas. This “significant” risk area means there is a 10% probability of seeing hurricane-force wind gusts (74+ mph) within 25 miles of a point.
Large Hail Potential. As storms initially form in the western and central Dakotas mid/late this afternoon, large hail up to baseball size (2.75” in diameter) will be possible, particularly in the “significant” risk black dashed area.
Tornado Threat. We’ll also be watching the tornado threat with these storms late today into tonight. As storms initially form, a few of the individual storm cells could produce tornadoes. Meanwhile, there could also be a spin up or two along the leading edge of the line of storms as they race eastward overnight.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
"severe" - Google News
July 17, 2020 at 07:43PM
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Significant Severe Storm Risk Later Today - Minneapolis Star Tribune
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