We have a fantastic couple of days as we close July and bring August in. Tomorrow is the pick of the week in fact. From there, we've two big features to bring some weather to us. The first is Sunday, which poses a severe weather threat. The second is Hurricane Isaias, which will not have a direct impact on us but will at least bring the opportunity for some tropical rains as we get into the workweek. Questions remain of course, and I'll address those here.
It's one of the cooler mornings we've had this summer, but still nice and comfortable. Temperatures range from the low 50s to the low 60s with dewpoints not far behind. Any patchy fog will not take long to burn off as the sun gets going.
Our cold front from yesterday is holding down along the I-95 corridor as clouds to our south continue to slide to the east and southeast. That translates to a mostly sunny day for us, with some high clouds impeding the sun from time to time as you head from the Mohawk Valley south. It'll be a mild to warm day with highs in the upper 70s to the middle 80s and although I can't rule out a stray shower or twp over the Adirondacks, pretty much all of us will stay dry today. That stalled front will facilitate a few showers well to our south, just an FYI if you're headed downstate.
It'll be another comfortable, borderline cool night for some. With clear skies and pretty much zero wind, lows will once again fall to the 50s and low 60s.
That'll set the stage for a gorgeous Saturday with plenty of sunshine and comfortable humidity levels as dewpoints remain in the 50s and low 60s. High temperatures will be a few degrees higher than today with a few upper 80s down the Hudson Valley.
And, that will about do it for the nice weather for a spell.
Saturday night into Sunday
Clouds will quickly make their way in as we get into tomorrow night as the humidity starts to climb. This is all out ahead of a warm front that will be lifting our way for Sunday. Lows overnight will be much milder than the previous few, in the 60s to 70 degrees.
For Sunday, it has the potential to be a stormy day with a few details yet to be sorted out.
Showers and a few storms will fire up from mid-morning into the early afternoon. We will have plenty of humidity in place as dewpoints climb into the low 70s. We'll also have plenty of energy in the atmosphere to get the showers and storms going, so we'll at least have pockets of heavy rain.
The question is how far the warm front pushes in. If it comes on through and we break out into some sunshine, we could be in for a rather rough day of storms with gusty wind and perhaps a few rotating storms, which would enhance the wind threat. If the warm front limps in and hangs up, we'll stay in the clouds and the severe threat would be mitigated.
It all certainly bears watching, which of course I'll be doing.
Monday through Wednesday
Another forecast period with more questions than answers. I won't bore you with the scenarios because it is still pretty far out in time, but the center of the questions lies with Hurricane Isaias.
The forecast track of the storm has it hugging the east coast of Florida, where tropical storm watches are in effect. From there, it is forecast to make landfall in the central or northern Outer Banks of North Carolina late Monday or early Tuesday.
The current Hurricane Center forecast has it around Duck, if you're familiar with that area. Here is the official forecast map.
From there, the speed of the storm will increase as it loses some strength and perhaps makes a second landfall from eastern Long Island to Cape Cod. So, what does that mean for us?
One set of model output has the storm quite "tight," compact with not much spread of rain and wind, which would keep its effects on us minimal. Another set has a broad storm touching off rain for us ahead of its arrival to the Northeast on Tuesday.
So, my forecast has us in a so-so Monday with a mix of clouds and sun with showers and perhaps a few storms developing for the afternoon. As the storm approaches, we'll get into some rain on Tuesday, the heaviest of which will be south and east of Albany. As Isaias pulls away, we'll quiet down with some rain and leftover showers on Wednesday moving from west to east.
So, I'll reiterate: I hope you get to enjoy today and tomorrow!
"severe" - Google News
July 31, 2020 at 05:56PM
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Jason Gough's forecast: Enjoy the weekend before severe weather hits - Times Union
"severe" - Google News
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