Showers and storms are pushing in this morning, but they have stayed below severe limits. We're going to be tracking another round of storms later this afternoon, that will have a better chance at becoming severe.
While this initial line of storms is pushing in with a few gusts, the biggest concern is the slow-moving nature. They're dropping heavy amounts of rain in short amounts of time. This will help stabilize the air throughout the morning, never really giving us a chance to prime the atmosphere for storms.
This will help some folks out, north Highway 24, but will reinforce a boundary that will be setting up shop across Mid-Missouri. This boundary will be the favored spot for storms to roll along if we can become unstable enough and find a spark.
It's becoming more likely that we will get both. The instability is courtesy of warm, humid air moving back in with the help of southerly winds. The trigger will come by way of a disturbance causing the storms back to our west, a mesoscale convective vortex. This mini low-pressure will move out of Kansas and ride near the boundary in place. This looks to fire up storms along and south of that reinforced boundary, but when is still the question.
The timing will be after midday when we can see storms as that MCV spins from west to east. Our better bet of seeing storms will be the further east you live in the viewing area, as we heat up in the afternoon. We might not be ready for storms in some of our western counties by the time that vortex arrives. How "ready" we are for storms is another way of saying how unstable we can get. This morning's line of storms, and clouds associated with it, will determine that.
Bottom line, we're going to see some storms today. The afternoon round is the one of more concern in terms of severe weather. All threats are on the table with damaging straight-line winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado possible. The time-frame will be from about noon to 6 PM. Have a way to receive severe alerts like the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App to stay ahead of the storms this afternoon, wherever your day takes you.
Futuretrack
"severe" - Google News
July 15, 2020 at 06:15PM
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Insider Blog: Severe chances this afternoon - ABC17News.com
"severe" - Google News
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