Conditional severe potential Tuesday, more likely round Wednesday - KBTX

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Spring storms continue this week, with another round possible as early as Tuesday afternoon.

Our next low pressure system will begin to form over the course of the day today. Gulf moisture will increase locally, and a dryline will set up across West Texas later this afternoon. Ahead of Wednesday’s front and expected storms, we’ll need to monitor what happens out west on TUESDAY first.

Eyes will be on the radar to our west, then north and west the next couple days as we await a cold front rolling through Wednesday night(KBTX)

Tuesday’s threat is largely conditional, meaning the atmosphere will have a good deal of stability to overcome in order to develop thunderstorms. That said, enough moisture and warm air movement into this moist atmosphere could allow for the necessary ingredients to pop up storms locally late this afternoon, or allow storms out west to move into our area by the evening. For today, that primarily means a hail and wind threat, but a very low tornado concern exists as well, higher to our west.

Eyes will be on the radar to our west, then north and west the next couple days as we await a cold front rolling through Wednesday night(KBTX)

Wednesday, much higher instability in the atmosphere will exist ahead of the cold front pushing through the state of Texas. Strong thunderstorms are expected to form in North Central Texas and slowly make their way into our area over the course of the evening. The SPC notes the potential for “very” large hail in that area. While we will need to monitor for some hail of our own, storms are generally expected to weaken as they move into our area, leaving a lower hail concern, but a medium potential for severe wind gusts in excess of 60mph, especially across our northern counties.

Strong wind gusts will be the main threat to watch for tomorrow night as the line of storms slogs its way south over the course of the night. Some heavy rain is likely, with 1-3″ widespread once again before the sun rises Thursday. At the moment, but Thursday and Friday afternoons look stellar, with another batch of non-severe storms possible Friday night into very early Saturday.

While isolated storms are possible for parts of the Brazos Valley Tuesday evening, the more likely round of storms & potential strong/severe wind reaches the area WEDNESDAY NIGHT into SUNRISE THURSDAY.

Storms coming out of N. TX expected by/after midnight. Weakening trend likely pic.twitter.com/8Lx9l1OTU4

— Shel Winkley 👍 (@KBTXShel) April 25, 2023

Copyright 2023 KBTX. All rights reserved.

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Conditional severe potential Tuesday, more likely round Wednesday - KBTX
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