On the storm’s back side, frigid temperatures will flip rain to snow. Hefty accumulations are possible in places such as Kansas City, Milwaukee and Lansing, Mich., with a more uncertain forecast in Chicago and Detroit.
By Friday, subzero temperatures will build into the Upper Midwest and parts of the Great Lakes, with wind chills dipping below minus-10 amid the meteorological roller coaster.
On Monday morning, a high-altitude disturbance — containing cold air, low pressure and spin — was present west of Graham Island, British Columbia. It will continue diving south through the Northeast Pacific before moving ashore the Pacific Northwest on Monday evening. A bit of rain is possible in Washington State and Oregon during the evening hours.
From there, the disturbance will strengthen as it sags toward the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. At the same time, a zone of low pressure will begin to materialize over the Texas Panhandle. The approaching disturbance will intensify the low, giving rise to what will become our storm.
Low pressure spins counterclockwise; picture an enormous mixing bowl swirling through the atmosphere. Southerly winds ahead of the system will advect, or tug, warm, moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico northward. In the system’s wake, bone-chilling air from Canada will slosh into the central United States.
In between, a cold front will trail the low-pressure system as it charges northeast from the Plains and Corn Belt into the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. That will represent the atmospheric battleground over which the seasons will clash; heavy rain is probable as moisture pools along the front, while strong upper-level winds associated with the perturbed jet stream will bolster the risk of windy or tornadic thunderstorms in the South.
The warm side
Temperatures won’t achieve records in most locales, but they will be above where they’d typically be this time of year. Dallas, Oklahoma City, Houston and Jackson, Miss., could all climb into the mid-70s on Wednesday; Oklahoma City’s average mid-February high is 54 degrees, and Jackson is usually in the lower 60s.
By Thursday, the warmth will creep east. Nashville and Lexington, Ky., will enjoy warmth in the mid- to upper 60s. Boston and New York, both typically in the lower 40s in February, could spike to 60. Washington and Baltimore may snag upper 60s, and Raleigh may edge into the 70s.
It may even feel a bit muggy over the Deep South and Southeast on Thursday as dew points rise into the mid-60s. Dew points are a measure of how much moisture is in the air. The nation’s capital could see a dew point of 60 on Thursday evening before the front marches through, the ample humidity favoring heavy downpours and perhaps some thunder.
Heavy rain and severe weather
A dryline, or the leading edge of dry air from the Desert Southwest, will shove east across Texas on Wednesday in tandem with the cold front. That will support the development of a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms along and east of Interstate 35 from northeast Texas to southeast Oklahoma.
A few of the initial storms may be rotating supercells, presenting an outside shot of a tornado or two. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has outlined a level 2 out of 5 “slight risk” of severe weather. There is a chance that category could be upgraded in the days ahead.
Storms will probably merge into a line Wednesday night with gusty to damaging winds as the squall shifts into Arkansas and Louisiana. Mississippi and western Tennessee could see storminess Thursday too, with Alabama in line for storms by the evening. Damaging winds will be the main concern, though a few embedded spin-up tornadoes are possible too.
On Thursday evening, heavy rain will work toward the Interstate 95 corridor on the Eastern Seaboard, with a broad half inch to an inch and a half of rain possible. Localized flooding could become a concern.
Snow and cold
Behind the cold front, moisture wrapping northwest around the low-pressure system will fall in chilly air, depositing a narrow strip of snowfall from northeast Kansas to near Chicago through Michigan and into Canada. The band of heaviest snow may be only one hundred or so miles wide, making pinpointing any jackpot totals a difficult task this far in advance.
Snow will begin to expand along the front overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning; it will stretch from northern Michigan back to near Chicago and western Kansas, increasing in coverage and intensity by dawn. Snowfall rates may be briefly moderate to locally heavy, topping an inch per hour.
It is likely that many areas will wind up with 4 to 8 inches of snow when all is said and done, with the greatest probabilities of heavy snowfall in northwest Missouri, southeast Iowa, northern Illinois and central Michigan. A few spots may pick up 12 to 18 inches. Chicago could be in line for a heavy snowfall depending on where the swath of heavy snow sets up.
There could be some icing east of the snow where liquid precipitation will fall into subfreezing air. Where exactly that becomes an issue remains to be seen — computer models will improve in their simulations by Tuesday morning as the instigating upper-air disturbance moves into the Pacific Northwest, where weather balloons can be launched into it.
Cold air will funnel southeast overnight Thursday as the front clears to the east; the western suburbs of Chicago may fall to near zero to start the day Friday, with lows for the Twin Cities in the double digits below zero. Some moderation in temperatures will occur over the weekend.
"severe" - Google News
February 14, 2022 at 11:31PM
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Storm to bring Midwest snow, severe weather to South starting midweek - The Washington Post
"severe" - Google News
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