- Two storm systems will provide the possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms.
- The threat area stretches from Texas to Alabama in the early part of the week.
- Flooding is also possible in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys.
A wet and stormy week is expected in the South and Midwest as two storm systems slingshot from the West to the Northeast in the upcoming work week.
The jet stream will take a sharp southward plunge into the Southwest early in the week. A surge of energy will swing east out of that jet stream plunge on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a second, stronger disturbance later in the week.
To the north, several rounds of snow, ice and wind are expected from the central Rockies into the Great Lakes. For more on the winter weather expected, click here.
In the warmer air, these two storm systems could lead to several days of storms in the South and mid-South.
Here's what we know about the timing and threats in the week ahead:
Severe Storm Timing
The first storm system will arrive in the Plains and Deep South by late Monday.
Some strong storms that are capable of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are possible Monday and Tuesday from eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma to western Tennessee and northern portions of Alabama and Mississippi.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon and evening. A gradual strengthening of storms is expected during the evening hours and a few severe storms are possible after dark.
Severe Weather Threat Areas Monday Through Tuesday
(Colors here do not depict the threat level)Quickly on the heels of the first system, another low pressure system will drop into the Southern Plains from the Four Corners region with another collection of ample moisture and strong winds aloft.
This may create the opportunity for at least one more day of severe weather in the South before the system moves into the Northeast. It is too soon to pinpoint the most likely areas for severe storms at this time.
Strong storms are possible both on Wednesday and Thursday, but the degree to which these storms intensify is uncertain.
Flooding Possible in the Ohio, Tennessee Valleys
Another major threat with both storms is flash flooding. Two rounds of heavy rain in the Tennessee Valley and the Appalachians are likely to trigger flash flooding and river flooding, especially by late in the week.
Rainfall early in the week could be particularly impactful in portions of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky where rivers are already flooding due to recent rainfall. These river levels will drop somewhat by late Monday when the first round of heavier rain is anticipated, but this new rainfall could slow this drainage.
Several inches of rain are expected south of the Ohio River, but up to an inch is possible in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
The biggest threat at this time seems to be centered around Tennessee, but this area may move around some as new details are uncovered.
Rainfall Outlook
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall from the combination of both storms. )Portions of the Ohio Valley are running a multiple-inch surplus in rainfall since the beginning of the year, which sets the stage for an enhanced flood threat in the next few days.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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February 20, 2022 at 03:03AM
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Prolonged Period of Severe Weather, Flood Threats Possible in the Week Ahead | The Weather Channel - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com - The Weather Channel
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