TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) (Mon. AM update) - Most of the viewing area’s severe threat for Monday afternoon and evening was heightened as a storm system approaches from the west, and bring threat of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the South Georgia and Big Bend under a level 3 (enhanced) threat of severe weather for Monday. The SPC’s severe weather forecast scale ranges from 1 (marginal) to 5 (high). The SPC has locations such as Perry, Jasper, Live Oak and Mayo under a level 2 risk.
2/15/2021, 6 AM ET. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the tri-state area. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and hail may occur. Please have a plan in place in case a warning is issued. #FLwx #GAwx #ALwx pic.twitter.com/mUrygDwMsz
— NWS Tallahassee (@NWSTallahassee) February 15, 2021
WEATHER SETUP: Subjective surface observations Monday morning show an area of low pressure centered in the Gulf of Mexico with a warm front over Central Florida. Simultaneously, a trough of low pressure aloft was over Texas and Oklahoma was seen on water vapor and was starting to appear more negatively tilted. The aforementioned warm front is forecast to move northward into and through the Big Bend and parts of South Georgia during the day, which will bring in warmer and more humid air. The warmer and humid air is an important ingredient with thunderstorm development.
ELEMENTS: The upper-level trough and strengthening low will help to bring faster low-level winds. These higher winds will help to create low-level wind shear that can help enhance thunderstorms and add enough “spin” to them. There also may be enough convective energy to give the thunderstorms some potency. The Monday morning high-resolution guidance hints at sufficient energy to develop stronger thunderstorms. With the wind shear, energy, lift and colder air aloft, these factors will create an environment for strong to severe thunderstorms.
LIMITING FACTORS: Timing of the northern movement of the warm front and advection of the warmer and humid airmass would be key to how the thunderstorm risk shapes up. This meteorologist will continue to monitor the movement of the front during the day. Also, any breaks in the cloud cover could provide more heat and, therefore, more convective energy to work with.
TIMING: Convection-allowing forecast model runs from Monday morning were showing a squall line approaching the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers between late afternoon to early evening Monday, and nearing Tallahassee and Cairo between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. For locations such as Valdosta and Perry, the models have the line entering those locations early to late evening (between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m.). There is also a chance of showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the main line.
Be sure to download the WCTV Pinpoint Weather App to receive updates and weather alerts. Also, have a NOAA Weather Radio as a secondary method of receiving severe weather warnings (click here to read more on receiving watches and warnings). The Pinpoint Weather Team will also provide updates on air, on social media and on the website.
This story was updated to reflect the Storm Prediction Center’s upgrade of the severe weather risk.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - There is a low-grade chance of thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes as another storm system passes through the Big Bend and South Georgia Monday afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the viewing area under a level 2 (slight) threat of severe weather for Monday. The SPC’s severe weather forecast scale ranges from 1 (marginal) to 5 (high).
WEATHER SETUP: A large mid- and upper-level trough of low pressure was bringing snow across part of the Midwest and Rocky Mountains Sunday morning. That trough is forecast to continue its eastward movement and amplify over Texas by Monday morning. The lift ahead of the trough will help develop a surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico early Monday morning and march northeastward toward western Florida Panhandle by the end of the day.
ELEMENTS: A warm front is forecast to lift northward by noon Monday and bring warm and humid air back to the area, helping to create buoyancy. Meanwhile, the trough and strengthening low will help to bring faster low-level winds. These higher winds will help to create low-level wind shear that can help enhance thunderstorms and add enough “spin” to them. There also may be enough convective energy to give the thunderstorms some potency. With the wind shear, energy and lift, these factors will create an environment for stronger to isolated severe thunderstorms.
LIMITING FACTORS: How much warm air can return to the area before the expected squall line enters the Big Bend and South Georgia. The longer it takes for the warm front to pass on Monday, the less moisture to move in to aid thunderstorm development. Also, convective energy is not forecast to be very high - especially after sunset Monday.
TIMING: Convection-allowing forecast model runs from Sunday morning were showing a squall line approaching the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers between mid to late afternoon Monday, and nearing Tallahassee and Cairo late afternoon/early evening. For locations such as Valdosta and Perry, the models have the line entering those locations early to late evening (between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m.).
Be sure to download the WCTV Pinpoint Weather App to receive updates and weather alerts. Also, have a NOAA Weather Radio as a secondary method of receiving severe weather warnings (click here to read more on receiving watches and warnings). The Pinpoint Weather Team will also provide updates on air and online.
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