August forwards up on month and year
Solar share more than doubles from last June
Houston — The Electric Reliability Council of Texas' day-ahead on-peak locational marginal prices edged up in June, compared with May, but were down sharply from June 2019 prices, while August on-peak packages were up on the month and year.
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Register NowWeather played a role in the month-on-month price increases, which ranged from 1.5% to about $23.90/MWh at the Houston Hub to 6.2% to about $22.90/MWh at the North Hub, according to S&P Global Platts' price database.
Population-weighted average cooling-degree days this June were about 5.8 times this May's total, CustomWeather data shows, while the year-on-year increase was more muted, up about 9.6%.
Peakloads averaged 60.6 GW this June, up sharply from May's 52.1 GW, but just about 0.5% more than June 2019's average of 60.3 GW.
The year-on-year day-ahead on-peak LMP decreases ranged from about 19.5% at the South Hub to $22.40/MWh, to almost 25.2% at the Houston Hub, and can at least be partly attributed to lower natural gas prices.
At the Houston Ship Channel, spot natural gas averaged $1.565/MMBtu this June, down about 7.9% from this May, and down about 31.8% from June 2019.
Forward markets
In contrast, natural gas prices were not as supportive of ERCOT North August on-peak forwards, which were nevertheless up about 17.7% from May's $125.90/MWh to this June's $148.20/MWh. ERCOT North Hub August 2019 on-peak forwards averaged $106.65/MWh in June 2019.
At the Houston Ship Channel, August gas averaged $1.782/MMBtu this June, down about 13.5% from this May's $2.059/MMBtu and down by 24% from the $2.346/MMBtu that August 2019 gas averaged in June 2019.
The big factor in this June's run-up on August power forwards was probably the weather forecast, which indicated significantly higher chances – 40% to 60% -- for above-normal temperatures across all of Texas for the July-August-September time period, according to the National Weather Service's seasonal forecast, issued June 18.
Generation mix
With such cheap fuel, gas-fired generation had no problem retaining its leading share among ERCOT's generation fleet. Gas plants supplied 46.5% of ERCOT's total this June, up from 44.1% in May but down from 50.9% in June 2019, ERCOT data shows.
Wind held onto the No. 2 spot, at 23.3% this June, which was down from this May's 24.9% but up from June 2019's 16.4%.
Coal-fired generation's share continued to diminish in June, falling to 16.6% from May's 16.7% and June 2019's 20.3%.
Solar is beginning to supply a larger share of ERCOT's total, with 2.9% this June, the same as in May, but more than double June 2019's 1.3%.
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July 09, 2020 at 03:59AM
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ERCOT Tracker: Day-ahead on-peak power prices up on month, down on year - S&P Global
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